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On the Possible Costs of European Monetary Union

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  • Hughes Hallett, A J
  • Vines, D

Abstract

Much has been written about the benefits of monetary union in Europe, but little about the possible costs. This paper use s a small simulation model to analyze the costs and best design for EMU. The authors find demand/supply asymmetries cause inflation, output losses and extra adjustment costs. Price stability requires tougher monetary controls, while output stability is critically dependent on active (and coordinated) fiscal policies. Thus the key is to increas e the effectiveness of existing policies. EMU itself adds very little since exchange rate stability cannot guarantee either price or outpu t stability. Relative price discipline is achieved at the expense of output stability and absolute price discipline. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes Hallett, A J & Vines, D, 1993. "On the Possible Costs of European Monetary Union," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 35-64, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:61:y:1993:i:1:p:35-64
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/3221 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jérôme Creel, 2001. "Faut-il contraindre la politique budgétaire en Union monétaire ?. Les enseignements d'une maquette simulée," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 77(2), pages 199-249.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2943 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2943 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "EMU in Reality: The Effect of a Common Monetary Policy on Economies with Different Transmission Mechanisms," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 337-358, December.
    6. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2013. "Macroeconomic Stabilisation in the Eurozone: Lessons from Failure," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4, pages 66-73, July.
    7. Jerome Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The fiscal theory of the price level and sluggish inflation: how important shall the wealth effect be?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. Jérôme Creel, 2002. "Strategic interactions between monetary and fiscal policies: a case study for the European Stability Pact," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3221, Sciences Po.
    9. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & van Moorsel, Cornelie, 2001. "Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 127-148, June.
    10. Vladimir Chaplygin & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Monetary integration in the ex‐Soviet Union: A ‘union of four’?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, March.
    11. Bas Van Aarle & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans & Arie Weeren, 2001. "Macroeconomic Policy Interaction under EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 29-60, January.
    12. Jensen, Svend Erik Hougaard & Jensen, Lars Grue, 1995. "Debt, deficits and transition to EMU: A small country analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-25, March.
    13. Bohn, Frank, 2006. "Maastricht Criteria versus Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 247-276, April.
    14. Whyman, Philip, 2002. "Living with the Euro: the consequences for world business," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 208-215, October.
    15. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ella Kavanagh, 2001. "Inflation Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: What Happens When Countries Differ in Size?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 145-161, April.
    16. VAN AARLE, Bas & ENGWERDA, Jacob C. & PLASMANS, Joseph E.J. & WEEREN, Arie, 1999. "Monetary and fiscal policy design under EMU: a dynamic game approach," Working Papers 1999041, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3221 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Peter Mooslechner & Martin Schuerz, 1999. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Any Lessons for EMU? A Selective Survey of the Literature," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 171-199, September.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2972 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Friedrich L. Sell, 1996. "On the theoretical determination of optimal currency areas in the framework of club theory," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 126-143, Autumn.
    21. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Nicola Viegi, 1999. "Can the ECB be Truly Independent? Should It Be?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 217-240, September.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3221 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Andrew Hallett & Nicola Viegi, 2002. "Inflation Targeting as a Coordination Device," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 341-362, October.
    24. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2943 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August.

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