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Bayesian causality test for integer-valued time series models with applications to climate and crime data

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  • Cathy W. S. Chen
  • Sangyeol Lee

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  • Cathy W. S. Chen & Sangyeol Lee, 2017. "Bayesian causality test for integer-valued time series models with applications to climate and crime data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 797-814, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:66:y:2017:i:4:p:797-814
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Rahbek, Anders & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2009. "Poisson Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1430-1439.
    2. Jung, Robert C. & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2006. "Time series of count data: modeling, estimation and diagnostics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2350-2364, December.
    3. René Ferland & Alain Latour & Driss Oraichi, 2006. "Integer‐Valued GARCH Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 923-942, November.
    4. Jiwon Kang & Sangyeol Lee, 2014. "Parameter Change Test for Poisson Autoregressive Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1136-1152, December.
    5. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2011. "Log-linear Poisson autoregression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 563-578, March.
    6. Fukang Zhu, 2011. "A negative binomial integer‐valued GARCH model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 54-67, January.
    7. Dennis Mares & Kenneth Moffett, 2016. "Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 297-310, March.
    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    9. Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.
    10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    11. Dennis M. Mares & Kenneth W. Moffett, 2016. "Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 297-310, March.
    12. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2023. "Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 84-107, March.
    2. Mike West, 2020. "Bayesian forecasting of multivariate time series: scalability, structure uncertainty and decisions," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(1), pages 1-31, February.
    3. Cathy W. S. Chen & Sangyeol Lee & K. Khamthong, 2021. "Bayesian inference of nonlinear hysteretic integer-valued GARCH models for disease counts," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 261-281, March.
    4. Xinyang Wang & Dehui Wang & Kai Yang, 2021. "Integer-valued time series model order shrinkage and selection via penalized quasi-likelihood approach," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 84(5), pages 713-750, July.
    5. Kai Yang & Han Li & Dehui Wang & Chenhui Zhang, 2021. "Random coefficients integer-valued threshold autoregressive processes driven by logistic regression," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(4), pages 533-557, December.
    6. Kai Yang & Yao Kang & Dehui Wang & Han Li & Yajing Diao, 2019. "Modeling overdispersed or underdispersed count data with generalized Poisson integer-valued autoregressive processes," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 82(7), pages 863-889, October.
    7. Luis E. Nieto-Barajas, 2022. "Dependence on a collection of Poisson random variables," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(1), pages 21-39, March.
    8. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Liu, Feng-Chi & Pingal, Aljo Clair, 2023. "Integer-valued transfer function models for counts that show zero inflation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Berry, Lindsay R. & Helman, Paul & West, Mike, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasting of heterogeneous consumer transaction–sales time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 552-569.
    10. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Chen, Chun-Shu & Hsiung, Mo-Hua, 2023. "Bayesian modeling of spatial integer-valued time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    11. Luiza S. C. Piancastelli & Wagner Barreto‐Souza & Hernando Ombao, 2023. "Flexible bivariate INGARCH process with a broad range of contemporaneous correlation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 206-222, March.
    12. Federico Bassetti & Giulia Carallo & Roberto Casarin, 2022. "First-order integer-valued autoregressive processes with Generalized Katz innovations," Papers 2202.02029, arXiv.org.

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