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Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data

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  • Kyle J. Foreman
  • Guangquan Li
  • Nicky Best
  • Majid Ezzati

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  • Kyle J. Foreman & Guangquan Li & Nicky Best & Majid Ezzati, 2017. "Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 121-139, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:66:y:2017:i:1:p:121-139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
    2. Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito, 2013. "A general modelling framework for multivariate disease mapping," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 100(3), pages 539-553.
    3. Booth, H. & Tickle, L., 2008. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 3-43, September.
    4. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310.
    5. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
    6. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Jim Oeppen & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, 2019. "Forecasting Causes of Death using Compositional Data Analysis: the Case of Cancer Deaths," CREATES Research Papers 2019-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier & Kjærgaard, Søren, 2022. "Mortality forecasts by age and cause of death: How to forecast both dimensions?," SocArXiv d7hbp, Center for Open Science.

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