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Balanced Estimates of National Accounts When Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The Uk, 1920–38

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  • Solomos Solomou
  • Martin Weale

Abstract

It is frequently argued that changes in economic variables are measured more reliably than their levels. This may happen if measurement errors are autocorrelated. Autocorrelation should be taken into account in the least squares balancing of national accounts. Formulae are presented for the error structure which is likely to arise from extrapolation away from or interpolation between bench‐mark observations. Balanced estimates are presented for the UK national accounts, 1920–38, taking into account the autocorrelation likely to have been generated in data construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1993. "Balanced Estimates of National Accounts When Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The Uk, 1920–38," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(1), pages 89-105, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:156:y:1993:i:1:p:89-105
    DOI: 10.2307/2982862
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mitchell, James & Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 2012. "Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 543-556.
    2. Baoline Chen & Tommaso Di Fonzo & Thomas Howells & Marco Marini, 2018. "The statistical reconciliation of time series of accounts between two benchmark revisions," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 533-552, November.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
    4. Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
    5. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan, 2017. "Integrated hierarchical forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 412-418.
    6. Ehsan Khoman & James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2008. "Incidence‐based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life‐tables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 203-222, January.
    7. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "Monthly and quarterly GDP estimates for interwar Britain," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 348_2, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Erum Toor & Tanweer Ul Islam, 2019. "Power Comparison of Autocorrelation Tests in Dynamic Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 11(2), pages 58-69, September.
    9. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    10. Mitchell, J. & Solomou, S. & Weale, M., 2009. "Monthly and Quarterly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0949, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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