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Incidence‐based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life‐tables

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  • Ehsan Khoman
  • James Mitchell
  • Martin Weale

Abstract

Summary. Will the UK's aging population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Life expectancy of healthy people represents the expected number of years of healthy well‐being that a life‐table cohort would experience if age‐specific rates of mortality and disability prevailed throughout the cohort's lifetime. Robust estimation of this life expectancy is thus essential for examining whether additional years of life are spent in good health and whether life expectancy is increasing faster than the decline of rates of disability. The paper examines a means of generating estimates of life expectancy for people who are healthy and unhealthy for the UK that are consistent with exogenous population mortality data. The method takes population transition matrices and adjusts these in a statistically coherent way so as to render them consistent with aggregate life‐tables.

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  • Ehsan Khoman & James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2008. "Incidence‐based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life‐tables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 203-222, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:171:y:2008:i:1:p:203-222
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00497.x
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    Cited by:

    1. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    2. Nicole L. Van Der Gaag & Govert Bijwaard & Joop de Beer & Luc Bonneux, 2015. "A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(3), pages 75-106.
    3. Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale, 2012. "Education and its Effects on Survival, Income and Health of those aged Sixty-five and over in the United Kingdom," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 393, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale, 2012. "Education and its Effects on Survival, Income and Health of those aged Sixty-five and over in the United Kingdom," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 393, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Dorsett, Richard & Lui, Silvia & Weale, Martin, 2014. "Education and its effects on income and mortality of men aged sixty-five and over in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 71-82.
    6. Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale, 2011. "Education and its Effects on the Income, Health and Survival of those aged Sixty-five and Over (This paper has been revised and is replaced by DP 393)," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 383, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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