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Relative Variability In Wheat Yields Across Countries And Over Time

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  • A. J. Singh
  • D. Byerlee

Abstract

Wheat yield variability is analysed in light of recent concern that rapid technological change has caused increased instability in world cereal production. The coefficient of variation of wheat yields is estimated for 57 countries from detrended data for various periods between 1951 and 1986. The coefficient of variation in wheat yields is shown to be determined by country size, moisture regime and temperature. Technological variables, such as level of adoption of high‐yielding varieties and fertiliser dose, had no effect on differences in yield variability across countries. Analysis of yield variability for the same set of countries for three periods from 1951 to 1986 shows a general decline in yield variability since 1975 in developing countries. Analysis of wheat yield variability in India at the state and district levels confirms the analysis of country level data. The coefficient of variability of wheat yields in India in the period 1976‐85 has fallen to less than half the level in the 1950s and this decline is statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • A. J. Singh & D. Byerlee, 1990. "Relative Variability In Wheat Yields Across Countries And Over Time," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 21-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:41:y:1990:i:1:p:21-32
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1990.tb00616.x
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    1. Mehra, Shakuntla, 1981. "Instability in Indian agriculture in the context of the new technology:," Research reports 25, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Dalrymple, Dana G., 1980. "Development and Spread of Semi-Dwarf Varieties of Wheat and Rice in the United States: An International Perspective," Agricultural Economic Reports 307884, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Peter B. R. Hazell, 1984. "Sources of Increased Instability in Indian and U.S. Cereal Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(3), pages 302-311.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Seung-Ryong & Koo, Won W. & Wilson, William W., 1992. "Heteroskedasticity In Crop Yield Models," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-7, July.
    2. Hazell, Peter B.R., 2009. "The Asian Green Revolution:," IFPRI discussion papers 911, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. World Bank, 2005. "Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization," World Bank Publications - Reports 8264, The World Bank Group.
    4. Adhikari, A. & Sekhon, M.K. & Kaur, M., 2016. "Export of Rice from India: Performance and Determinants," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 29(1).
    5. Lantican, M. A. & Pingali, P. L. & Rajaram, S., 2003. "Is research on marginal lands catching up?: The case of unfavourable wheat growing environments," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 353-361, December.
    6. Smale, Melinda, 2000. "Economic Incentives for Conserving Crop Genetic Diversity on Farms: Issues and Evidence," 2000 Conference, August 13-18, 2000, Berlin, Germany 197208, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. R. Fraser, 1993. "Set‐Aside Premiums And The May 1992 Cap Reforms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 410-417, September.
    8. Wright, Brian D., 1997. "Crop genetic resource policy: the role of ex situ genebanks," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-35.
    9. He, Senhui & White, Fred C. & Fletcher, Stanley M., 2003. "The Effects Of Research On Wheat Yields And Yield Variances," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35155, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. R.W. Fraser, 1991. "Price‐Support Effects On Ec Producers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 1-10, January.
    11. Wright, Brian D., 1996. "Crop genetic resource policy: towards a research agenda," EPTD discussion papers 19, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Julian M. Alston & William J. Martin & Philip G. Pardey, 2014. "Influences of Agricultural Technology on the Size and Importance of Food Price Variability," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 13-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Frisvold, George B. & Condon, Peter T., 1998. "The convention on biological diversity and agriculture: Implications and unresolved debates1," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 551-570, April.
    14. Smale, Melinda, 1996. "Understanding Global Trends in the Use of Wheat Diversity and International Flows of Wheat Genetic Resources," Economics Working Papers 7670, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    15. Hartell, Jason G. & Smale, Melinda & Heisey, Paul W. & Senauer, Benjamin, 1997. "The Contribution of Genetic Resources and Diversity to Wheat Productivity: A Case from the Punjab of Pakistan," Economics Working Papers 7673, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    16. Gollin, Douglas, 2006. "Impacts of International Research on Intertemporal Yield Stability in Wheat and Maize: An Economic Assessment," Impact Studies 7657, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    17. Dubin, H.J. & Brennan, John P., 2009. "Combating stem and leaf rust of wheat: Historical perspective, impacts, and lessons learned," IFPRI discussion papers 910, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Fackler, Paul L. & Young, Douglas L., 1991. "Notes on Modeling Regional Crop Yields," 1991 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, March 17-20, 1991, San Antonio, Texas 271549, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    19. Byerlee, Derek, 1990. "Technical Change, Productivity, and Sustainability in Irrigated Wheat Systems of Asia: Emerging Issues," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270921, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Byerlee, Derek, 1996. "Modern varieties, productivity, and sustainability: Recent experience and emerging challenges," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 697-718, April.
    21. Byerlee, Derek, 1990. "Technical Change, Productivity, and Sustainability in Irrigated Cropping Systems of South Asia: Emerging Issues in the Post-Green Revolution Era," Economics Working Papers 232451, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.

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