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Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis

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  • Di Dong
  • Arnold Tukker
  • Ester Van der Voet

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a dynamic stock model and scenario analysis involving a bottom‐up approach to analyze copper demand in China from 2005 to 2050 based on government and related sectoral policies. The results show that in the short‐term, China's copper industry cannot achieve a completely circular economy without additional measures. Aggregate and per capita copper demand are both set to increase substantially, especially in infrastructure, transportation, and buildings. Between 2016 and 2050, total copper demand will increase almost threefold. Copper use in buildings will stabilize before 2050, but the copper stock in infrastructure and transportation will not yet have reached saturation in 2050. The continuous growth of copper stock implies that secondary copper will be able to cover just over 50% of demand in 2050, at best, even with an assumed recycling rate of 90%. Finally, future copper demand depends largely on the lifetime of applications. There is therefore an urgent need to prolong the service life of end‐use products to reduce the amount of materials used, especially in large‐scale applications in buildings and infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Dong & Arnold Tukker & Ester Van der Voet, 2019. "Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(6), pages 1363-1380, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:23:y:2019:i:6:p:1363-1380
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12926
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin Liu & Heinz Schandl & James West & Meng Jiang & Zijian Ren & Dingjiang Chen & Bing Zhu, 2022. "Copper ore material footprints and transfers embodied in domestic and international trade of provinces in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1423-1436, August.
    2. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    3. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Tang, Chen & Sprecher, Benjamin & Tukker, Arnold & Mogollón, José M., 2021. "The impact of climate policy implementation on lithium, cobalt and nickel demand: The case of the Dutch automotive sector up to 2040," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Lijun Sun & Yan Feng & Daolin Wang & Chongchong Qi & Xuemin Zeng, 2022. "Influence of CaO on Physical and Environmental Properties of Granulated Copper Slag: Melting Behavior, Grindability and Leaching Behavior," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-12, October.
    6. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mariev, Oleg & Samargandi, Nahla, 2022. "Minerals import demands and clean energy transitions: A disaggregated analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Agnese, Pablo & Rios, Francisco, 2023. "Spillover Effects of Energy Transition Metals in Chile," IZA Discussion Papers 15999, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Dai, Tiejun & Yue, Zhongchun, 2023. "The evolution and decoupling of in-use stocks in Beijing," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Patrice Christmann & Gaëtan Lefebvre, 2022. "Trends in global mineral and metal criticality: the need for technological foresight," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 641-652, December.
    10. Tian, Shuoshuo & Di, Yuezhong & Dai, Min & Chen, Weiqiang & Zhang, Qi, 2022. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction in future aluminum supply chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    11. Ziyan Gao & Yong Geng & Xianlai Zeng & Xu Tian & Tianli Yao & Xiaoqian Song & Chang Su, 2022. "Evolution of the anthropogenic chromium cycle in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(2), pages 592-608, April.

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