IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v57y1981i4p368-378.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Formation of Producers' Price Expectations in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • PETER SAUNDERS

Abstract

This paper investigates the formation of price expectations by Australian manufacturing firms. It is shown that the reported expectations are generally consistent with the hypothesis that they are derived as conditional forecasts from the model used by firms in determining their actual price change behaviour. Tests are then undertaken to see whether the expectations are unbiased and efficient forecasts, the cross‐section results indicating generally that they are neither, and hence not rational. Alternative time‐series tests of the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis, however, suggest that neither hypothesis can be rejected, implying rationality.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Saunders, 1981. "The Formation of Producers' Price Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(4), pages 368-378, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:57:y:1981:i:4:p:368-378
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1981.tb01072.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1981.tb01072.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1981.tb01072.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McDonald, John, 1977. "The Relationship between Wage Inflation and Excess Demand-New Estimates Using Optimal Extrapolative Wage Expectations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(144), pages 490-507, December.
    2. Defris, L V & Williams, R A, 1979. "The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(149), pages 136-148, June.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "Are Market Forecasts Rational?," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 59-75, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Menil, George & Bhalla, Surjit S, 1975. "Direct Measurement of Popular Price Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(11), pages 169-180, March.
    5. Valentine, T J, 1977. "Price Expectations in Australia: An Alternative Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(142&143), pages 390-404, June-Sept.
    6. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-858, August.
    7. Jonson, P D & Mahoney, D M, 1973. "Price Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 49(125), pages 50-61, March.
    8. Fackler, James & Stanhouse, Bryan, 1977. "Rationality of the Michigan Price Expectations Data: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 662-666, November.
    9. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
    10. Hall, V.B., 1977. "PRICING BEHAVIOUR IN AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY: Hypothesis Testing 1955-56 to 1967-68," Working Papers 22, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    11. L. V. Defris & R. A. Williams, 1979. "The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(2), pages 136-148, June.
    12. T. J. Valentine, 1977. "Price Expectations in Australia: An Alternative Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(3), pages 390-404, September.
    13. P. D. Jonson & D. M. Mahoney, 1973. "Price Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 49(1), pages 50-61, March.
    14. John Mcdonald, 1977. "The Relationship Between Wage Inflation and Excess Demand — New Estimates Using Optimal Extrapolative Wage Expectations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(4), pages 490-507, December.
    15. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-336, April.
    16. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Inflation Expectations and Money Growth in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 149-161, March.
    17. Danes, Michael, 1975. "The Measurement and Explanation of Inflationary Expectations in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(24), pages 75-87, June.
    18. John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 27-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jacobs, Rodney L & Jones, Robert A, 1980. "Price Expectations in the United States: 1947-75," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 269-277, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Saunders, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Deft is‐Williams Inflationary Expectations Series: A Comment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 290-292, September.
    2. Jocelyn Horne, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Defris‐Williams Inflationary Expectations Series: A Reply," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 293-294, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jocelyn Horne, 1981. "Rational Expectations and the Defris‐Williams Inflationary Expectations Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(3), pages 261-268, September.
    2. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    3. Peter Saunders, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Deft is‐Williams Inflationary Expectations Series: A Comment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 290-292, September.
    4. Bharat R. Kolluri, 1982. "Anticipated Price Changes, Inflation Uncertainty, And Capital Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(2), pages 135-149, June.
    5. James Chan-Lee, 1980. "A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(1), pages 45-86, March.
    6. T. J. Valentine, 1977. "Price Expectations in Australia: An Alternative Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(3), pages 390-404, September.
    7. William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf, 1984. "Empirical Tests of the Rationality of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 717R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 1985.
    8. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    9. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
    10. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 26-33.
    11. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    12. Chris M. Alaouze, 2003. "A modified logit model for time series with an application to the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms in Australia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 599-613, July.
    13. Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Observations on the Indexation of Old Age Pensions," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 231-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. L. V. Defris & R. A. Williams, 1979. "The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(2), pages 136-148, June.
    15. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
    16. Michael G. Kirby, 1981. "An Investigation of the Specification and Stability of the Australian Aggregate Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(1), pages 35-46, March.
    17. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
    18. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
    19. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 1378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Keith K.W. Chan & Toan M. Pham, 1990. "Models of Inflation Forecasts: Some Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(1), pages 89-105, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:57:y:1981:i:4:p:368-378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.