IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v63y2023i2p1885-1918.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The association between quarter length, forecast errors, and firms’ voluntary disclosures

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen A. Hillegeist
  • James P. Kavourakis
  • Matthew Pinnuck

Abstract

Approximately 60 percent of adjacent fiscal quarters contain a different number of calendar days. In preliminary analyses, we find the change in quarter length is significantly associated with the changes in sales and earnings and that analysts condition on the prior quarter's results when making their forecasts. These results indicate that it is important for analysts to adjust for changes in quarter length when making forecasts. However, we find the quarterly change in days is positively associated with analysts’ sales and earnings forecasts errors, where forecast error equals the actual earnings minus the forecasted earnings. These results indicate that analysts systematically underestimate (overestimate) performance when quarter length increases (decreases). We find evidence indicating investors make similar errors as returns around earnings announcements are positively associated with the change in quarter length, but only when changes in firm performance is more sensitive to changes in quarter length. Corroborating these findings, managers are more (less) likely to discuss quarter length during conference calls when quarter length decreases (increases). These results are consistent with managers’ strategic disclosure incentives. In summary, our evidence suggests analysts and investors fail to fully take account of the quasi‐mechanical effect that quarter length has on firm performance and managers strategically alter their voluntary disclosures to take advantage of these failures.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen A. Hillegeist & James P. Kavourakis & Matthew Pinnuck, 2023. "The association between quarter length, forecast errors, and firms’ voluntary disclosures," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 1885-1918, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:63:y:2023:i:2:p:1885-1918
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12933
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12933
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.12933?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    2. Paul M. Healy & Amy P. Hutton & Krishna G. Palepu, 1999. "Stock Performance and Intermediation Changes Surrounding Sustained Increases in Disclosure," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 485-520, September.
    3. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    5. Dye, Ra, 1985. "Strategic Accounting Choice And The Effects Of Alternative Financial-Reporting Requirements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 544-574.
    6. Joel F. Houston & Baruch Lev & Jennifer Wu Tucker, 2010. "To Guide or Not to Guide? Causes and Consequences of Stopping Quarterly Earnings Guidance," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 143-185, March.
    7. Chen, Shuping & Matsumoto, Dawn & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2011. "Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 134-150, February.
    8. Andrew B. Jackson & Marlene A. Plumlee & Brian R. Rountree, 2018. "Decomposing the market, industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1071-1095, September.
    9. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    10. Joel F. Houston & Baruch Lev & Jennifer Wu Tucker, 2010. "To Guide or Not to Guide? Causes and Consequences of Stopping Quarterly Earnings Guidance," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 4-4, March.
    11. Gigerenzer, Gerd & Todd, Peter M. & ABC Research Group,, 2000. "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195143812.
    12. Chen, Shuping & Matsumoto, Dawn & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2011. "Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 134-150.
    13. Brown, Stephen & Hillegeist, Stephen A. & Lo, Kin, 2004. "Conference calls and information asymmetry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 343-366, September.
    14. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    15. Bradshaw, Mark T. & Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G., 2006. "The relation between corporate financing activities, analysts' forecasts and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 53-85, October.
    16. Verrecchia, Robert E., 1990. "Information quality and discretionary disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 365-380, March.
    17. Tom Y. Chang & Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon & Eugene F. Soltes, 2017. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 281-323.
    18. Cianci, Anna M. & Kaplan, Steven E., 2010. "The effect of CEO reputation and explanations for poor performance on investors' judgments about the company's future performance and management," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 478-495, May.
    19. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    20. Farrell, Kathleen A. & Whidbee, David A., 2003. "Impact of firm performance expectations on CEO turnover and replacement decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 165-196, December.
    21. Kim, Y. Han (Andy), 2013. "Self attribution bias of the CEO: Evidence from CEO interviews on CNBC," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2472-2489.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seo, Hojun, 2021. "Peer effects in corporate disclosure decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1).
    2. Mehdi Beyhaghi & Pooyan Khashabi & Ali Mohammadi, 2023. "Pre-grant Patent Disclosure and Analyst Forecast Accuracy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 3140-3155, May.
    3. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    4. Karthik Balakrishnan & Mary Brooke Billings & Bryan Kelly & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2014. "Shaping Liquidity: On the Causal Effects of Voluntary Disclosure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2237-2278, October.
    5. Elaine Ying Wang & Hun‐Tong Tan, 2013. "The Effects of Guidance Frequency and Guidance Goal on Managerial Decisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 673-700, June.
    6. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    7. David Veenman & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2022. "The Earnings Expectations Game and the Dispersion Anomaly," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 3129-3149, April.
    8. Imhof, Michael J & Seavey, Scott E., 2018. "How investors value cash and cash flows when managers commit to providing earnings forecasts," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 74-87.
    9. Sun Hyun Park & Kelly Patterson, 2021. "Being Counted and Remaining Accountable: Maintenance of Quarterly Earnings Guidance by U.S. Public Companies," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 544-567, May.
    10. Agnes C. S. Cheng & Wenli Huang & Shaojun Zhang, 2020. "Major government customer and management earnings forecasts," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, December.
    11. Kristian D. Allee & Theodore E. Christensen & Bryan S. Graden & Kenneth J. Merkley, 2021. "The Genesis of Voluntary Disclosure: An Analysis of Firms’ First Earnings Guidance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1914-1938, March.
    12. Billings, Mary Brooke & Jennings, Robert & Lev, Baruch, 2015. "On guidance and volatility," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 161-180.
    13. Chen, Xiaomeng Charlene & Hellmann, Andreas & Sood, Suresh, 2022. "A framework for analyst economic incentives and cognitive biases: Origination of the walk-down in earnings forecasts," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    14. Leonardo Fernandez, 2012. "Price Discovery, Investor Distraction and Analyst Recommendations Under Continuous Disclosure Requirements in Australia," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2012.
    15. Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han & Karahan, Gökhan, 2017. "Do voluntary disclosures of bad news improve liquidity?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 16-29.
    16. Juyoun Ryoo & Cheolwoo Lee & Jin Q Jeon, 2020. "Sustainability of Analyst Recommendations in Multiple Lead Underwriter IPOs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-36, March.
    17. Robert Fraunhoffer & Ho Young Kim & Dirk Schiereck, 2018. "Value Creation in M&A Transactions, Conference Calls, and Shareholder Protection," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, January.
    18. Yun Ke & Kin Lo & Jinfei Sheng & Jenny Li Zhang, 2023. "Do investors affect financial analysts’ behavior? Evidence from short sellers," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 199-224, March.
    19. Nguyen, Phuong-Anh & Kecskés, Ambrus, 2020. "Do technology spillovers affect the corporate information environment?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    20. Yongtae Kim & Lixin (Nancy) Su & Xindong (Kevin) Zhu, 2017. "Does the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduce investors’ short-termism?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 715-752, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:63:y:2023:i:2:p:1885-1918. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.