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The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions

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Listed:
  • Pervaiz Alam
  • Xiaoling Pu
  • Barry Hettler

Abstract

We examine the impact of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) and cash flow per share (CPS) forecast revisions on the market for credit default swaps. We find that while the issuance of both EPS and CPS forecast revisions are inversely associated with changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads, cash flow forecast revisions have a larger effect. We demonstrate that the relationship between CPS forecast revisions and CDS spreads tends to be stronger in cases of financial distress. We provide evidence that cash flow forecasts dominate earnings forecasts in some situations and that participants in the CDS market discriminate between analysts' forecast revisions and recommendation changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pervaiz Alam & Xiaoling Pu & Barry Hettler, 2018. "The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(3), pages 697-725, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:58:y:2018:i:3:p:697-725
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12235
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    2. Brasel, Kelsey R. & Hill, Mary S. & Taylor, Gary K., 2022. "The relevance of GAAP vs. non-GAAP net assets to creditors: An examination of the credit default swap market," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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