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To beat or not to beat? The importance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts

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  • Lawrence Brown
  • Kelly Huang
  • Arianna Pinello

Abstract

We investigate the implications of firms’ benchmark-beating patterns with respect to analysts’ quarterly cash flow forecasts for firms’ current capital market valuation and their future performance. We hypothesize that nonnegative earnings surprises are more likely to be supported by real operating performance and signal higher earnings quality if they are achieved via higher than expected cash flows or lower than expected accruals. We show that firms beating analyst earnings forecasts have larger positive capital market reactions and larger earnings response coefficients if they beat analyst cash flow forecasts or report lower than expected accruals. We also demonstrate that these firms’ superior future performance may provide an economic justification for their more favorable market response. Our findings suggest that firms’ ability to beat analyst cash flow forecasts is informative regarding the quality of their earnings surprises. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence Brown & Kelly Huang & Arianna Pinello, 2013. "To beat or not to beat? The importance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 723-752, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:41:y:2013:i:4:p:723-752
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-012-0330-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Nagar, Neerav & Raithatha, Mehul, 2016. "Does good corporate governance constrain cash flow manipulation? Evidence from India," IIMA Working Papers WP2016-03-23, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    2. Elizabeth A. Gordon & Elaine Henry & Bjorn N. Jorgensen & Cheryl L. Linthicum, 2017. "Flexibility in cash-flow classification under IFRS: determinants and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 839-872, June.
    3. Andreas Charitou & Irene Karamanou & Anastasia Kopita, 2018. "The determinants and valuation effects of classification choice on the statement of cash flows," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 613-650, September.
    4. John R. M. Hand & Henry Laurion & Alastair Lawrence & Nicholas Martin, 2022. "Explaining firms’ earnings announcement stock returns using FactSet and I/B/E/S data feeds," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1389-1420, December.
    5. Hyun Min Oh & Ho young Shin, 2019. "A Study on the Relationship between Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Issuance and Accounting Information: Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Iris Bergmann & Wolfgang Schultze, 2018. "Accounting based valuation: a simultaneous equations model for forecasting earnings to proxy for ‘other information’," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1057-1091, May.
    7. Pervaiz Alam & Xiaoling Pu & Barry Hettler, 2018. "The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(3), pages 697-725, September.
    8. Sandip Dhole & Ferdinand A. Gul & Sagarika Mishra & Ananda M. Pal, 2021. "The joint information role of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 499-541, March.
    9. Viviani, Jean-Laurent & Lai, Anh-Ngoc & Louhichi, Waël, 2018. "The impact of asymmetric ambiguity on investment and financing decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 169-180.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst forecasts; Cash flows; Valuation consequences; Firm performance; C12; C21; M41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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