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Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads

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Author Info

  • Das, Sanjiv R.
  • Hanouna, Paul
  • Sarin, Atulya

Abstract

Models of financial distress rely primarily on accounting-based information (e.g. [Altman, E., 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 23, 589-609; Ohlson, J., 1980. Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research 19, 109-131]) or market-based information (e.g. [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449-470]). In this paper, we provide evidence on the relative performance of these two classes of models. Using a sample of 2860 quarterly CDS spreads we find that a model of distress using accounting metrics performs comparably to market-based structural models of default. Moreover, a model using both sources of information performs better than either of the two models. Overall, our results suggest that both sources of information (accounting- and market-based) are complementary in pricing distress.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 719-730

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:719-730

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Credit default swap Credit risk Bankruptcy prediction;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Das, Sanjiv & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2014. "Did CDS trading improve the market for corporate bonds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 495-525.
  2. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2008. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Câmara, António & Popova, Ivilina & Simkins, Betty, 2012. "A comparative study of the probability of default for global financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 717-732.
  4. Huang, Hsing-Hua & Lee, Han-Hsing, 2013. "Product market competition and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-340.
  5. repec:pab:wpbsad:12.07 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Chen, Tsung-Kang & Liao, Hsien-Hsing & Tsai, Pei-Ling, 2011. "Internal liquidity risk in corporate bond yield spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 978-987, April.
  7. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2012. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Working Papers 12.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
  8. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Juan Romo, 2009. "Are There Arbitrage Opportunities in Credit Derivatives Markets? A New Test and an Application to the Case of CDS and ASPs," Business Economics Working Papers wb096303, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.

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