IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2020i1p114-135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario Analysis of the Assessment of the Rail Transport Impact on the Economic Growth (on the Example of Ukraine)

Author

Listed:
  • Olha Kravchenko

Abstract

In the modern world, efficient transport infrastructure is one of the main factors ensuring economic growth in both countries and macro-regions. In this context, of particular interest are studies in states whose economies are in a state of crisis and are characterized by a high uncertainty of development parameters. To this aim, the influence of the rail transport on the economy of Ukraine was studied. The importance of Ukrainian railways in the system of international transport and communication links between the countries of Eurasia is considered. The use of scenario simulation to study the prospects for the development of the rail transport in conditions of high uncertainty has been substantiated. A SWOT analysis was performed, based on the results of which scenarios were constructed for rail transport in Ukraine. Scenario analysis showed that in the context of a systemic economic crisis, the rail transport can influence not the process of economic growth in the country, but its intensity, acting as a factor of acceleration or deceleration. Improvement of the situation is possible when developing a set of measures aimed primarily at improving the internal environment of rail transport.

Suggested Citation

  • Olha Kravchenko, 2020. "Scenario Analysis of the Assessment of the Rail Transport Impact on the Economic Growth (on the Example of Ukraine)," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 114-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2020:i:1:p:114-135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iki.bas.bg/Journals/EconomicStudies/2020/2020-1/5_O.Kravchenko_f-f.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    2. Baldwin, John R. Dixon, Jay, 2008. "Infrastructure Capital: What Is It? Where Is It? How Much of It Is There?," The Canadian Productivity Review 2008016e, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division.
    3. César Calderón & Enrique Moral‐Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, March.
    4. Stewart, James, 2010. "The UK National Infrastructure Plan 2010," EIB Papers 6/2010, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    5. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    6. Olha Kravchenko, 2019. "Public-Private Partnership As A Mechanism For Financing Infrastructure Modernization," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 5(1).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nadiia Bohomolova & Vitalina Ovrutska, 2020. "Conceptual foundations for the formation of economically feasible costs in railway transport enterprises," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 11(1), pages 141-147, September.
    2. repec:thr:techub:10011:y:2020:i:1:p:141-147 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erasmo Papagni & Amedeo Lepore & Emanuele Felice & Anna Laura Baraldi & Maria Rosaria Alfano, 2018. "Public Investment and Growth Accelerations: The Case of Southern Italy, 1951-1995," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    2. Zergawu, Yitagesu Zewdu & Walle, Yabibal M. & Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel, 2020. "The joint impact of infrastructure and institutions on economic growth," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 481-502, August.
    3. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Philipp Rother, 2014. "Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximizing debt targets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 638-647, February.
    4. J. F. M. De Jong & M. Ferdinandusse & J. Funda, 2018. "Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5543-5560, November.
    5. An, Zidong & Kangur, Alvar & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2019. "On the substitution of private and public capital in production," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 296-311.
    6. Li, Jianling & Whitaker, Elizabeth, 2018. "The impact of governmental highway investments on local economic outcome in the post-highway era," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 410-420.
    7. Ogbaro, Eyitayo O., 2019. "Threshold Effects of Institutional Quality in the Infrastructure-Growth Nexus," Journal of Quantitative Methods, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan, vol. 3(2), pages 45-61.
    8. J. F. M. De Jong & M. Ferdinandusse & J. Funda, 2018. "Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5543-5560, November.
    9. Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura, 2018. "On the reverse causality between output and infrastructure: The case of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 97-104.
    10. Wang, Xu & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Zhuan & Huang, Yiping, 2016. "Roads to innovation: Firm-level evidence from China:," IFPRI discussion papers 1542, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    13. Urrunaga, Roberto & Aparicio, Carlos, 2012. "Infrastructure and economic growth in Peru," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    14. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Yannis Psycharis & Vassilis Tselios, 2012. "Public investment and regional growth and convergence: Evidence from Greece," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(3), pages 543-568, August.
    15. Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Guillard & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2017. "Public Investment, Time to Build, and the Zero Lower Bound," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 60-79, January.
    16. Bottasso, Anna & Conti, Maurizio & Ferrari, Claudio & Tei, Alessio, 2014. "Ports and regional development: A spatial analysis on a panel of European regions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 44-55.
    17. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595, April.
    18. Sabrina Auci & Laura Castellucci & Manuela Coromaldi, 2021. "How does public spending affect technical efficiency? Some evidence from 15 European countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 108-130, January.
    19. Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably Too Little, Certainly Too Late. An Assessment of the Juncker Investment Plan," PSE Working Papers hal-03459360, HAL.
    20. Mansaray, Alhassan & Coleman, Simeon & Ataullah, Ali & Sirichand, Kavita, 2021. "Residual government ownership in public-private partnership projects," Journal of Government and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2020:i:1:p:114-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.