IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2019i5p148-163.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of Gross Agricultural Output of Agrarian Enterprises of Ukraine: Case Study with STELLA Software

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Balaniuk
  • Ihor Kozak
  • Diana Shelenko
  • Sergiy Balaniuk
  • Iryna Kozak-Balaniuk

Abstract

The article is devoted to the forecasting of gross agricultural output of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine with an application of STELLA program. The STELLA economic modelling program, which combines mathematical differential equations with a developed graphical interface, has been used in the article. In this program a model was created and an attempt was made to forecast the gross agricultural output of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine by 2030. It has been the possible growth up to UAH 147319 mln UA of output of agricultural enterprises (PRODUCTION) with a slight reduction and further stabilization of the agricultural land (AREA) at the level of 22600 thousand hectares, a constant increase in fertilizers to 135 kg per hectare (FERTILIZATION) and a steady growth of enterprises up to 60900 (ENTERP). The most promising possibilities for applying STELLA program in economic forecasting have been outlined in the article.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Balaniuk & Ihor Kozak & Diana Shelenko & Sergiy Balaniuk & Iryna Kozak-Balaniuk, 2019. "Forecasting of Gross Agricultural Output of Agrarian Enterprises of Ukraine: Case Study with STELLA Software," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 148-163.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2019:i:5:p:148-163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=813587
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walters, Jeffrey P. & Archer, David W. & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Hendrickson, John R. & Hanson, Jon D. & Halloran, John M. & Vadas, Peter & Alarcon, Vladimir J., 2016. "Exploring agricultural production systems and their fundamental components with system dynamics modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 51-65.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mariana Humeniuk & D³àna Shelenko & Natalia Kovalchuk & Ivan Balaniuk & Iryna Kozak-Balaniuk, 2022. "The Impact of Innovation on The Structure of the Assets of the Enterprises," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 93-112.
    2. Levandivskyi Omelian & Shpykuliak Oleksandr & Balaniuk Ivan & Svynous Ivan & Shelenko Diana, 2022. "Modeling of Added Value as a Financial Indicator of Activity of Agricultural Enterprises in the Regions of Ukraine," Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Sciendo, vol. 44(3), pages 288-301, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ana Paula Coelho Clauberg & Renato de Mello & Flávio José Simioni & Simone Sehnem, 2021. "System for assessing the sustainability conditions of small hydro plants by fuzzy logic," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 300-317, March.
    2. Ali, Muhammad Fadzli & Akber, Md. Ali & Smith, Carl & Aziz, Ammar Abdul, 2021. "The dynamics of rubber production in Malaysia: Potential impacts, challenges and proposed interventions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Steliana Rodino & Ruxandra Pop & Cristina Sterie & Andreea Giuca & Eduard Dumitru, 2023. "Developing an Evaluation Framework for Circular Agriculture: A Pathway to Sustainable Farming," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-24, October.
    4. Matinzadeh, Mohammad Mehdi & Abedi Koupai, Jahangir & Sadeghi-Lari, Adnan & Nozari, Hamed & Shayannejad, Mohammad, 2017. "Development of an innovative integrated model for the simulation of nitrogen dynamics in farmlands with drainage systems using the system dynamics approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 11-28.
    5. Tonnang, Henri E.Z. & Hervé, Bisseleua D.B. & Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa & Salifu, Daisy & Subramanian, Sevgan & Ngowi, Valentine B. & Guimapi, Ritter Y.A. & Anani, Bruce & Kakmeni, Francois M.M. & Aff, 2017. "Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 88-103.
    6. Cooper, Gregory S. & Rich, Karl M. & Shankar, Bhavani & Rana, Vinay & Ratna, Nazmun N. & Kadiyala, Suneetha & Alam, Mohammad J. & Nadagouda, Sharan B., 2021. "Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Igor Krejčí & Pavel Moulis & Jana Pitrová & Ivana Tichá & Ladislav Pilař & Jan Rydval, 2019. "Traps and Opportunities of Czech Small-Scale Beef Cattle Farming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-26, August.
    8. Benabderrazik, K. & Kopainsky, B. & Tazi, L. & Joerin, J. & Six, J., 2021. "Agricultural intensification can no longer ignore water conservation – A systemic modelling approach to the case of tomato producers in Morocco," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    9. Levandivskyi Omelian & Shpykuliak Oleksandr & Balaniuk Ivan & Svynous Ivan & Shelenko Diana, 2022. "Modeling of Added Value as a Financial Indicator of Activity of Agricultural Enterprises in the Regions of Ukraine," Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Sciendo, vol. 44(3), pages 288-301, September.
    10. Pitrova, Jana & Krejei, Igor & Pilar, Ladislav & Moulish, Pavel & Rydval, Jan & Hlavaty, Robert & Horakova, Tereza & Ticha, Ivana, 2020. "The economic impact of diversification into agritourism," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 23(5), August.
    11. Lombardi, G.V. & Parrini, Silvia & Atzori, R. & Stefani, G. & Romano, D. & Gastaldi, M. & Liu, G., 2021. "Sustainable agriculture, food security and diet diversity. The case study of Tuscany, Italy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    12. Marandure, Tawanda & Dzama, Kennedy & Bennett, James & Makombe, Godswill & Mapiye, Cletos, 2020. "Application of system dynamics modelling in evaluating sustainability of low-input ruminant farming systems in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    13. Dimitrios Iakovidis & Yiorgos Gadanakis & Julian Park, 2023. "Farmer and Adviser Perspectives on Business Planning and Control in Mediterranean Agriculture: Evidence from Argolida, Greece," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Akopov, Andranik S. & Beklaryan, Levon A. & Saghatelyan, Armen K., 2017. "Agent-based modelling for ecological economics: A case study of the Republic of Armenia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 346(C), pages 99-118.
    15. Fumin Deng & Canmian Liu & Xuedong Liang, 2017. "Measurement of Regional Agricultural Sustainable Development System Based on Dissipative Structure Theory: A Case Study in Sichuan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Balaniuk Ivan & Shelenko Diana & Shpykuliak Oleksandr & Sas Liudmyla & Cherneviy Yurii & Diuk Anna, 2023. "Determinants of Performance Indicators of Agricultural Enterprises," Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Sciendo, vol. 45(1), pages 25-36, March.
    17. Farrell, L.J. & Kenyon, P.R. & Tozer, P.R. & Ramilan, T. & Cranston, L.M., 2020. "Quantifying sheep enterprise profitability with varying flock replacement rates, lambing rates, and breeding strategies in New Zealand," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Guojiao Chen & Cuiyou Yao & Lurong Fan & Linze Li & Haiqing Cao, 2022. "Sustainability-oriented system dynamics method for coordinated megacity ecosystem development: the case of Beijing, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 11027-11057, September.
    19. Xianglong Tang & Chenyu Lu & Peng Meng & Wei Cheng, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Environmental Adaptability Efficiency of the Agricultural System in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.
    20. Yong S. Nyam & Julius H. Kotir & Andries J. Jordaan & Abiodun A. Ogundeji & Adetoso A. Adetoro & Israel R. Orimoloye, 2020. "Towards Understanding and Sustaining Natural Resource Systems through the Systems Perspective: A Systematic Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-20, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2019:i:5:p:148-163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.