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Econometric analysis of Labour Market in Bulgaria - 1991-2006

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  • Anita Staneva

Abstract

The paper elaborates on the problems for construction and estimation of econometric techniques for analysis of labour market in Bulgaria. It is used the econometrics vector autoregressive modeling (VAR). In the model are included and investigated the main indicators that characterize labour market functioning (unemployment, employment, wages, labour productivity and inflation). On the basis of the obtained estimates for the parameters of the model and the impulse response analysis are analyzed the links and relationships among the main variables and their sensitiveness to macroeconomics shocks. The results from the VAR model and impulse response analysis show insignificant relationship between employment, unemployment and wages, which indicates that Bulgarian labour market is less flexible. Bulgarian labour market is sensitive to the labour demand shocks, inflation and technology shocks. Unemployment and employment are most sensitive regarding the effects of the shocks because their levels are changed under the impact of almost all investigated factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Anita Staneva, 2007. "Econometric analysis of Labour Market in Bulgaria - 1991-2006," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 144-172.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2007:i:3:p:144-172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
    2. Peter Summers, 2000. "Labour Market Analysis with VAR Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Norbert Berthold & Rainer Fehn, 2003. "Unemployment in Germany: Reasons and Remedies," CESifo Working Paper Series 871, CESifo.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    5. Mariana Kotzeva & Bianka Pauna, 2006. "Labour Market Dynamics and Characteristics in Bulgaria and Romania: Challenges for a Successful Integration in the European Union," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 66, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Linzert, Tobias, 2001. "Sources of German unemployment: evidence from a structural VAR model," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyuboslav Kostov, 2020. "The impact of labor productivity on wages in the EU," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 146-158.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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