IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aml/intbrm/v12y2021i3p103-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Influence of Macro factors On Residential Mortgage In Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Umberto Filotto

    (Department Management and Law, Faculty of Economics, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, 00133, Italy)

  • Claudio Giannotti

    (Department Management and Law, Faculty of Economics, University LUMSA, Rome, 00192, Italy)

  • Gianluca Mattarocci

    (Department Management and Law, Faculty of Economics, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, 00133, Italy)

  • Xenia Scimone

    (Department Management and Law, Faculty of Economics, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, 00133, Italy)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of macro-economic variables, including informal sector, on the growth of the mortgage market in Italy, from 1999 to 2019. We start testing normality, correlation (Pearson) and multicollinearity, then we apply theoretical benchmark model following the approach proposed by Wichura (2006) using a linear regression model. Based on the main findings of this study we show that there a positive and potentially high correlation between residential mortgage and informal sector. In particular, we find that a unit increase in Percentage informal sector employment will cause an increase in residential mortgage. May be counterintuitive as the informal sector magnitude should represent a weaker access to credit for borrowers; nevertheless it may also be the case that informal sector increase anticipate GDP growth signalling a subsequent positive economic downturn. Thus, financial institutions will increase residential mortgage due to the informal sector growth signalling a positive economic trend. This work may help them suggesting how to include informal sector dynamics into residential mortgage pricing, as well as policymakers to read residential mortgage market dynamics and derive informal sector insights.

Suggested Citation

  • Umberto Filotto & Claudio Giannotti & Gianluca Mattarocci & Xenia Scimone, 2021. "The Influence of Macro factors On Residential Mortgage In Italy," International Journal of Business Research and Management (IJBRM), Computer Science Journals (CSC Journals), vol. 12(3), pages 103-115, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aml:intbrm:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:103-115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cscjournals.org/manuscript/Journals/IJBRM/Volume12/Issue3/IJBRM-300.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.cscjournals.org/library/manuscriptinfo.php?mc=IJBRM-300
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Apergis & A. Rezitis, 2003. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 799-804.
    2. Oswald, Andrew J., 1996. "A Conjecture on the Explanation for High Unemployment in the Industrialized Nations: Part I," Economic Research Papers 268744, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    3. Richard K. Green & Patric H. Hendershott, 2001. "Home-ownership and Unemployment in the US," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 38(9), pages 1509-1520, August.
    4. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Antonio De Socio, 2010. "The economic and financial situation of Italian non financial corporations: an international comparison," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 66, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    8. Suhal Kusairi & Suriyani Muhamad & M Musdholifah & Shu-Chen Chang, 2019. "Labor Market and Household Debt in Asia Pacific Countries: Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Data Analysis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    10. Jack E. Gelfand, 1970. "Mortgage Credit and Lower-Middle Income Housing Demand," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(2), pages 163-170.
    11. World Bank, 2012. "Mongolia Financial Sector Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 27094, The World Bank Group.
    12. World Bank, 2012. "Financial Sector Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 26814, The World Bank Group.
    13. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109.
    14. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    15. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    16. Paul Flatau & Matt Forbes & Patric H. Hendershott, 2003. "Homeownership and Unemployment: The Roles of Leverage and Public Housing," NBER Working Papers 10021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    18. Matteo Cristofaro & Pier Luigi Giardino & Luna Leoni, 2021. "Back to the Future: A Review and Editorial Agenda of the International Journal of Business Research and Management," International Journal of Business Research and Management (IJBRM), Computer Science Journals (CSC Journals), vol. 12(1), pages 16-33, February.
    19. Jha, Chandan Kumar, 2019. "Financial reforms and corruption: Evidence using GMM estimation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 66-78.
    20. Chiquier, Loic & Hassler, Olivier & Lea, Michael, 2004. "Mortgage securities in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3370, The World Bank.
    21. World Bank, 2012. "Mongolia Financial Sector Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 27091, The World Bank Group.
    22. Judy Taylor & Ray Jureidini, 1994. "The Implicit Male Norm in Australian Housing Finance," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 543-554, June.
    23. Engelhardt, Gary V, 1996. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 255-271, May.
    24. World Bank, 2012. "Mongolia Financial Sector Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 26815, The World Bank Group.
    25. Hubbard R. Glenn & Mayer Christopher J, 2009. "The Mortgage Market Meltdown and House Prices," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-47, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    2. Dohmen, Thomas J., 2005. "Housing, mobility and unemployment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 305-325, May.
    3. Tripathi, Sabyasachi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Housing Prices: A Cross Country Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 98089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tehmina Khan, 2013. "Mongolia : Raising Female Participation in the Large Scale Mining Sector," World Bank Publications - Reports 16499, The World Bank Group.
    5. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    6. Daan Isebaert & Freddy Heylen & Carine Smolders, 2015. "Houses and/or Jobs: Ownership and the Labour Market in Belgian Districts," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1387-1406, August.
    7. Tafirenyika Sunde & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017. "Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(3), pages 389-407, July-Sept.
    8. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2013. "Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?," NBER Working Papers 19079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Yang, Xi, 2019. "The effects of home ownership on post-unemployment wages," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Broulíková, Hana M. & Huber, Peter & Montag, Josef & Sunega, Petr, 2020. "Homeownership, mobility, and unemployment: Evidence from housing privatization," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Javier A. Barrios Garcia & Jose E. Rodriguez Hernandez, 2004. "User Cost Changes, Unemployment and Home-ownership: Evidence from Spain," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 41(3), pages 563-578, March.
    12. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Lastauskas, Povilas, 2018. "The knotty interplay between credit and housing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 241-266.
    13. Laamanen, Jani-Petri, 2017. "Home-ownership and the Labour Market: Evidence from Rental Housing Market Deregulation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 157-167.
    14. Nathalie Havet & Carole Brunet, 2009. "Propriété immobilière et déqualifications dans l'emploi," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(1), pages 121-155.
    15. Ch.-M. CHEVALIER & R. LARDEUX, 2017. "Homeownership and labor market outcomes: disentangling externality and composition effects," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2017-09, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    16. Andrea Morescalchi, 2016. "The Puzzle Of Job Search And Housing Tenure: A Reconciliation Of Theory And Empirical Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 288-312, March.
    17. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Gary Engelhardt, 2001. "Nominal Loss Aversion, Housing Equity Constraints, and Household Mobility: Evidence from the United States," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 42, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    19. Vincenzo Cassino & Richard Thornton, 2002. "Do changes in structural factors explain movements in the equilibrium rate of unemployment?," Bank of England working papers 153, Bank of England.
    20. Stolbov, M., 2012. "Financial Accelerator Theory and the Russian Mortgage Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 79-98.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italy; Residential Mortgage; Economic Factors; Informal Sector.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M0 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aml:intbrm:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:103-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nabeel Tahir (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.