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On the Construction of a Leading Indicator Based on News Headlines for Predicting Greek Deposit Outflows

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  • Dimitris Anastasiou
  • Athanassios Petralias

Abstract

Employing data in a monthly frequency, with a sample period spanning from 2002 to 2018, the purpose of this study is twofold. First, we construct a novel leading indicator based on news headlines drawn from Bloomberg, and second, examine whether this leading indicator able to capture agents’ sentiment affects Greek bank deposit flows’ trajectory. Employing alternative econometric methodologies, we find that this index proxies for depositors’ crisis sentiment and the higher this index becomes, the higher the depositors’ negative sentiment becomes, leading them to withdraw their bank deposits. Overall, in this work, we show that the last decade’s advances in internet technology, which permit us to have direct access to a vast amount of information such as news headlines, offers the possibility of forecasting critical measures in the economy’s banking system, such as the number of bank deposits, which are of crucial importance. Monetary poly authorities or macroprudential regulators could adapt our model to assess the resilience of a bank or the whole banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris Anastasiou & Athanassios Petralias, 2021. "On the Construction of a Leading Indicator Based on News Headlines for Predicting Greek Deposit Outflows," International Journal of Business Management and Finance Research, Academia Publishing Group, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajo:ijbmfr:v:4:y:2021:i:1:p:1-11:id:57
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fecht, Falko & Thum, Stefan & Weber, Patrick, 2019. "Fear, deposit insurance schemes, and deposit reallocation in the German banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 151-165.
    2. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Katsafados, Apostolos G., 2020. "Bank Deposits Flows and Textual Sentiment: When an ECB President's speech is not just a speech," MPRA Paper 99729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Konstantinos Drakos, 2021. "Nowcasting the Greek (semi‐) deposit run: Hidden uncertainty about the future currency in a Google search," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1133-1150, January.
    4. Anastasios Petropoulos & Nikolaos E. Vlachogiannakis & Dionysios Mylonas, 2018. "Forecasting private sector bank deposits in Greece: determinants for trend and shock effects," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 141-169.
    5. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Zacharias Bragoudakis & Ioannis Malandrakis, 2019. "Non-performing loans, governance indicators and systemic liquidity risk: evidence from Greece," Working Papers 260, Bank of Greece.
    6. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2021. "European depositors’ behavior and crisis sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 117-136.
    7. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2023. "Household deposits and consumer sentiment expectations: Evidence from Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Dimitris Anastasiou & Apostolos Katsafados, 2023. "Bank deposits and textual sentiment: When an European Central Bank president's speech is not just a speech," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(1), pages 55-87, January.
    3. Katsafados, Apostolos & Anastasiou, Dimitris, 2022. "Short-term Prediction of Bank Deposit Flows: Do Textual Features matter?," MPRA Paper 111418, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank deposit flows; Bloomberg; News headlines; Sentiment; Uncertainty; Markov regime switching regression; Greece.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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