IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahs/journl/v6y2021i2p322-331.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Uncertains in European Economic Policies on the BIST 100 Index

Author

Listed:
  • Saffet Akdağ
  • Hakan Yıldırım

Abstract

Uncertainties are one of the factors affecting investors' investment decisions. In accordance with the wait-and-see policy, which is the best option for investors in an uncertain environment, investors can postpone their investment and consumption decisions. Uncertainties especially in economic policies affect investors' decisions more deeply. In this context, the goal of this study is to test the effect of European Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, which represents uncertainties in economic policies of European countries, on BIST 100 index by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Johansen Cointegration and cointegration coefficient estimator FMOLS and DOLS. Monthly data between February 1988 and May 2019 were used in this study. Findings of the study, it was reached that there was a long-run interaction between EPU and BIST 100 index and the increases in the EPU index had a negative effect on the BIST 100 index. In addition, one-way causality relationship was determined from the change in EPU index to the change in BIST 100 index.

Suggested Citation

  • Saffet Akdağ & Hakan Yıldırım, 2021. "The Effect of Uncertains in European Economic Policies on the BIST 100 Index," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(2), pages 322-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:6:y:2021:i:2:p:322-331
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.857796
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1500614
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30784/epfad.857796?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Zhijun & Kutan, Ali M. & Sun, Ping-Wen, 2018. "Is U.S. economic policy uncertainty priced in China's A-shares market? Evidence from market, industry, and individual stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 207-220.
    2. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti, 2020. "On the macro-drivers of realized volatility: the destabilizing impact of UK policy uncertainty across Europe," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(12), pages 1146-1183, August.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    4. Michael Donadelli, 2015. "Asian stock markets, US economic policy uncertainty and US macro-shocks," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 103-133, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Uk Heo, 1998. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Relationship around the Globe," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(5), pages 637-657, October.
    3. Goodall, Amanda H., 2009. "Highly cited leaders and the performance of research universities," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1079-1092, September.
    4. Miguel Ramirez & Shahryar Khan, 1999. "A cointegration analysis of purchasing power parity: 1973–96," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(3), pages 369-385, August.
    5. Wang, Shanchao & Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2023. "R&D Lags in Economic Models," Staff Papers 330085, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    6. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    7. Sriwena Saleerut & Chalermpon Jatuporn & Vasu Suvanvihok & Apinya Wanaset, 2020. "Price adjustment of oil palm and palm oil in Thailand to the world price of the palm oil market," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 690-697, December.
    8. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Carmen Díaz Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Is the Fisher Effect Nonlinear? Some Evidence for Spain, 1963-2002," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/05, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    9. Nicholas Taylor, 1998. "Precious metals and inflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 201-210.
    10. William Goetzmann & Eduardas Valaitis, 2006. "Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2476, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2006.
    11. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Zafar Ahmad Sultan, 2019. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: The Case of Indian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 274-279.
    12. Md. Sharif Hossain & Md. Thasinul Abedin, 2016. "Multivariate Dynamic Co-integration and Causality Analysis between Inflation and its Determinants," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 240-250.
    13. Lego, Brian & Gebremedhin, Tesfa & Cushing, Brian, 2000. "A Multi-Sector Export Base Model of Long-Run Regional Employment Growth," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 192-197, October.
    14. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    15. Aaron D. Smallwood & Paul M. Beaumont, 2002. "An Asymptotic MLE Approach to Modelling Multiple Frequency GARMA Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 285, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Habibullah, M.S. & Law, Siong-Hook & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M., 2008. "Defense spending and economic growth in Asian economies: A panel error-correction approach," MPRA Paper 12105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Shahid, Muhammad & Hassan, Mahboob Ul, 2011. "Some socio-economic determinants of fertility in Pakistan: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 38742, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    18. Sollis, Robert, 2011. "Spurious regression: A higher-order problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 141-143, May.
    19. Guncavdi, Oner & Ulengin, Burc, 2008. "Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in Turkey: Theoretical and Empirical Assessment," MPRA Paper 9622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Löschel Andreas & Oberndorfer Ulrich, 2009. "Oil and Unemployment in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 146-162, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Policy Uncertainty Index; BIST 100 Index; Causality Analysis; Cointegration Analysis; FMOLS and DOLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:6:y:2021:i:2:p:322-331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ersan Ersoy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://epfjournal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.