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Handels- und Budgeteffekte der WTO-Agrarverhandlungen in der Doha-Runde: Der revidierte Harbinson-Vorschlag

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  • Brockmeier, Martina
  • Salamon, Petra

Abstract

A great deal of attention is currently being paid to the discussion of the reform of global agricultural trade. In this paper, the effects of the revised Harbinson paper (March 2003) are analysed with an extensively extended GTAP model. With the help of a base run, projections are implemented in the form of economic developments as well as already enacted EU policy reforms and measures (Agenda 2000, Mid-Term Review, EU enlargement, EBA agreement) from 1997 to 2014. The base run is compared with a scenario simulating the Doha Round of the WTO based on the revised draft of the Harbinson proposal. The difference between the base run and the model scenario provides information on the effects on EU trade and budget. The revised Harbinson paper leads to a particularly negative development in the trade balances and production quantities for the agricultural and food sectors of the EU-27, which are supported with high import duties, export subsidies and direct payments. Significant effects could be seen particularly in the cases processed food, beef, fruits and vegetables, other cereals and oils and fats. A decomposition of the total effects of the implementation of the Harbinson paper provides detailed insights in the effects resulting from the changes in the complex protection structure of the CAP. The implementation of the Doha Round of the WTO negotiations leads to a reduction in expenses for agricultural market policy of the CAP, caused especially by the production related reduction in direct payments and the complete dismantling of export subsidies.

Suggested Citation

  • Brockmeier, Martina & Salamon, Petra, 2004. "Handels- und Budgeteffekte der WTO-Agrarverhandlungen in der Doha-Runde: Der revidierte Harbinson-Vorschlag," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 53(06), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97452
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.97452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    2. Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Beghin, John C. & de Cara, Stephane & Fang, Cheng & Isik, Murat & Matthey, Holger, 2003. "Agricultural Markets Liberalization And The Doha Round," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25875, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl, 2003. "Economic Implications of Trade Liberalization Under the Doha Round," Working Papers 2003-20, CEPII research center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martina Brockmeier & Marianne Kurzweil & Janine Pelikan & Petra Salamon, 2005. "WTO Agricultural Negotiations: a comparison of the Harbinson proposal and the Swiss Formula," ENARPRI Working Papers 012, ENARPRI (European Network of Agricultural and Rural Policy Research Institutes).
    2. Salamon, Petra & Ledebur, Oliver von, 2006. "Der Europaische Milchmarkt Zwischen Reform Und Liberalisierung," 46th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, October 4-6, 2006 14965, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Brockmeier, Martina & Sommer, Ulrich & Thomsen, Karin, 2005. "Sugar Policies: An Invincible Bastion for Modelers?," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 232588, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Brockmeier, Martina & Kurzweil, Marianne & Pelikan, Janine & Salamon, Petra, 2005. "WTO Agricultural Negotiations: A Comparison of the Harbinson Proposal and the Swiss Formula," ENARPRI Working Papers 25133, European Network of Agricultural and Rural Policy Research Institutes (ENARPRI).

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