IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v3(624)y2020i3(624)p243-260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the quarterly evolution of the Gross Domestic Product

Author

Listed:
  • Constantin ANGHELACHE

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL

    (“Artifex” University of Bucharest, Romania)

  • Ștefan Virgil IACOB

    (“Artifex” University of Bucharest, Romania)

  • Tudor SAMSON

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product is the most complex indicator of the results of a country's economy. The Gross Domestic Product expresses the concrete results obtained in the national economy and depending on its evolution, there are also possibilities for increasing consumption, domestic investment and last but not least the possibility of diversification of the national economy. The analysis of the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product was performed starting from the resources and uses that this indicator had in achieving these results. At the same time, the analysis is performed based on the raw data series, but also on the seasonally adjusted data series. In order to highlight the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product, analyzes were performed for periods of time starting with the year 2000, in order to capture the effects of the economicfinancial crisis, but then also for shorter periods of time, 2017-2019 or 2018-2020. All this was done in order to highlight the evolution over time, but also to shed light on the danger that exists in terms of the negative effect of the health crisis, coronavirus, which will certainly have negative effects. Probably if in the second quarter of 2020 we have a decrease in Gross Domestic Product of 12.3%, compared to the first quarter of 2020, it is not excluded that during the third and fourth semesters of 2020 we will also record non-compliant, inconclusive results, which may result in a double-digit reduction in Gross Domestic Product at the end of the year compared to the previous year 2019. The analysis aimed precisely at highlighting these trends and the way in which the structural analysis on different groups of factors (resources, uses and other macroeconomic indicators, inflation, unemployment, foreign direct investment, domestic investment, etc.), have on the national economy. All should have a beginning to restructure strategies to halt the macroeconomic decline and bring it into a position of stabilization and then resumption of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Ștefan Virgil IACOB & Tudor SAMSON, 2020. "Analysis of the quarterly evolution of the Gross Domestic Product," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 243-260, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(624):y:2020:i:3(624):p:243-260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1487.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1487&rid=140
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 124-144.
    2. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
    3. Graeme Chamberlin, 2011. "Gross domestic product, real income and economic welfare," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 5(5), pages 5-25, May.
    4. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    5. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Econometric Methods And Models Used In The Analysis Of The Factorial Influence Of The Gross Domestic Product Growth," Network Intelligence Studies, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 9, pages 67-78, June.
    6. Mazurek, Jiri, 2013. "A Comparison of GDP growth of European countries during 2008-2012 period from regional and other perspectives," MPRA Paper 51178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, January.
    8. Garín, Julio & Lester, Robert & Sims, Eric, 2016. "On the desirability of nominal GDP targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 21-44.
    9. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
    10. Abo-Zaid, Salem & Tuzemen, Didem, 2012. "Inflation Targeting: A three-decade perspective," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 621-645.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Ștefan Virgil IACOB & Dana Luiza GRIGORESCU, 2020. "The analysis of the quarterly evolution of the gross domestic product in 2019," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 171-182, Spring.
    2. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    3. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    4. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Radu STOICA, 2017. "Quarterly Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product Evolution - Significance Of Growth Rate," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 16-28, June.
    5. Anghelache Constantin & Anghel Madalina-Gabriela, 2018. "Analysis Of The Evolution Of Result Indicators In The Member States Of The European Union," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 15-22, December.
    6. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Ana CARP & Marian SFETCU & Stefan Gabriel DUMBRAVA, 2017. "Econometric Model For Analyzing The Influence Of Factors On Final Consumption," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(10), pages 123-131, October.
    7. Anghelache Constantin & Anghel Madalina-Gabriela, 2017. "Econometric Model For Complex Analyses And Forecast Of The Gross Domestic Product," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 5-12, December.
    8. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Radu STOICA & Tudor SAMSON & Alexandru BADIU, 2017. "Analysis of the Econometric model of the correlation between GDP and final consumption," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(2), pages 122-129, February.
    9. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    10. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira-Font, 2020. "Ensuring Stability, Accuracy and Meaningfulness in Synthetic Control Methods: The Regularized SHAP-Distance Method," IREA Working Papers 202005, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2020.
    11. Christoffersen, Peter & Ghysels, Eric & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "Let's get "real" about using economic data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-360, August.
    12. Xilong Chen & Eric Ghysels, 2011. "News--Good or Bad--and Its Impact on Volatility Predictions over Multiple Horizons," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 46-81, October.
    13. Zhao, Jun & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Dong, Kangyin, 2022. "How does energy poverty eradication promote green growth in China? The role of technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    14. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    15. Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Data revisions and periodic properties of macroeconomic data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 139-141.
    16. Johannes Blum & Klaus Gründler, 2020. "Political Stability and Economic Prosperity: Are Coups Bad for Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8317, CESifo.
    17. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
    18. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    19. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.
    20. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(624):y:2020:i:3(624):p:243-260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.