What Oil Export Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?
AbstractWe analyze the levels of oil exports that should be expected from OPEC over the next 25 years. We search for a long-term, market-adaptive, robustly optimal strategy that best serves OPEC's interests, and conclude that OPEC export profits will be higher if OPEC expands its oil exports by enough to maintain OPEC exports share of non-OPEC demand. Yet the incentives for this export expansion are relatively small only a few percent in terms of discounted export profits and it requires that OPEC be farsighted, because the higher export profits from faster export growth wonot be significant within the next decade. Moreover, if OPEC does maintain its exports share of non-OPEC demand, the continued rapid growth of OPEC's own oil consumption will require that OPEC oil output will have to increase 60% by 2030, which will be a major challenge.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.
Volume (Year): Volume 28 (2007)
Issue (Month): Number 2 ()
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F0 - International Economics - - General
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Shiers, Laura D., 2008. "Alternatives to conventional crude oil: When, how quickly, and market driven?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 405-411, October.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
- Wie, Jiegen & Wennlock, Magnus & Johansson, Daniel J.A. & Sterner, Thomas, 2011. "The Fossil Endgame: Strategic Oil Price Discrimination and Carbon Taxation," Discussion Papers dp-11-26, Resources For the Future.
- Benjamin Wong, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and The Role of Oil Shocks: How Different Were the 1970s?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- James L. Smith, 2008.
"World Oil: Market or Mayhem?,"
0815, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Aune, Finn Roar & Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2010.
"Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 389-398, March.
- Aune, Finn Roar & Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2009. "Financial market pressures, tacit collusion and oil price formation," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/14, University of Stavanger.
- Trevor Houser & Shashank Mohan, 2011. "America’s Energy Security Options," Policy Briefs PB11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.