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What Oil Export Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?

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  • Dermot Gately
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    Abstract

    We analyze the levels of oil exports that should be expected from OPEC over the next 25 years. We search for a long-term, market-adaptive, robustly optimal strategy that best serves OPEC's interests, and conclude that OPEC export profits will be higher if OPEC expands its oil exports by enough to maintain OPEC exports share of non-OPEC demand. Yet the incentives for this export expansion are relatively small only a few percent in terms of discounted export profits and it requires that OPEC be farsighted, because the higher export profits from faster export growth wonot be significant within the next decade. Moreover, if OPEC does maintain its exports share of non-OPEC demand, the continued rapid growth of OPEC's own oil consumption will require that OPEC oil output will have to increase 60% by 2030, which will be a major challenge.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

    Volume (Year): Volume 28 (2007)
    Issue (Month): Number 2 ()
    Pages: 151-174

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    Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2007v28-02-a07

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    Cited by:
    1. James L. Smith, 2009. "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 145-64, Summer.
    2. Aune, Finn Roar & Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2009. "Financial market pressures, tacit collusion and oil price formation," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/14, University of Stavanger.
    3. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and The Role of Oil Shocks: How Different Were the 1970s?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
    5. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Shiers, Laura D., 2008. "Alternatives to conventional crude oil: When, how quickly, and market driven?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 405-411, October.
    6. Trevor Houser & Shashank Mohan, 2011. "America’s Energy Security Options," Policy Briefs PB11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Wie, Jiegen & Wennlock, Magnus & Johansson, Daniel J.A. & Sterner, Thomas, 2011. "The Fossil Endgame: Strategic Oil Price Discrimination and Carbon Taxation," Discussion Papers dp-11-26, Resources For the Future.

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