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An Econometric Model of Oil and Gas Exploration Development and Production in the UK Continental Shelf: A Systems Approach

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  • Alexander Kemp
  • Sola Kasim

Abstract

The petroleum supply process takes place in stages. Decisions at any stage are based on information obtained at the preceding stage. The present paper develops an econometric model incorporating the feedback structure of the process. The model framework consists of a system of simultaneous equations. Using UKCS data the model was estimated, tested for stability and predictive power, and used to conduct a structural analysis, investigating the effects of market conditions on activity levels in a mature hydrocarbon province. The results provide useful insights into the feedback nature of the petroleum supply process and the importance of market conditions to continued activity levels in a mature province.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Kemp & Sola Kasim, 2003. "An Econometric Model of Oil and Gas Exploration Development and Production in the UK Continental Shelf: A Systems Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 113-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-02-a05
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    Cited by:

    1. Skjerpen, Terje & Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Osmundsen, Petter, 2018. "Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-239.
    2. Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2012. "Understanding Rig Rates," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/9, University of Stavanger.
    3. ten Cate, Arie & Mulder, Machiel, 2007. "Impact of the oil price and fiscal facilities on offshore mining at the Dutch Continental Shelf," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5601-5613, November.
    4. Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2015. "Understanding rig rate formation in the Gulf of Mexico," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 430-439.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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