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Making the Transition to Prepaid Medicare

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Author Info
Thomas R. Saving
Abstract

he Medicare system is facing a financial crisis brought on by the combination of rapidly rising consumption of health care services by beneficiaries and financing based on generation transfers. This paper simulates a transition to prepaid Medicare where each generation puts aside funds for the health care it will demand later in life. By prepaying Medicare we increase the nation's capital stock which in the long run will allow the nation to enjoy greater consumption for both working and retired generations and we achieve immunity from generation size shocks. By transferring the baby boomers and younger generations into a prepaid system we can complete the transition in less than fifty years and achieve an ultimate contribution rate of 1.26% of taxable payroll instead of the more than 12% of taxable payroll that will be required if we remain in the status quo.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
Pages: 85-98
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:85-98

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  1. Garrett, Daniel M, 1995. "The Effects of Differential Mortality Rates on the Progressivity of Social Security," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 457-75, July.
  2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Smetters, Kent A & Walliser, Jan, 1998. "Social Security: Privatization and Progressivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 137-41, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Keeler, Emmett B. & Rolph, John E., 1988. "The demand for episodes of treatment in the health insurance experiment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 337-367, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1995. "Privatization of Social Security: How it Works and Why it Matters," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 66, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
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  6. Wilhelm, Mark O, 1996. "Bequest Behavior and the Effect of Heirs' Earnings: Testing the Altruistic Model of Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 874-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1997. "The Economics of Prefunding Social Security and Medicare Benefits," NBER Working Papers 6055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Poterba, James M., 1998. "The rate of return to corporate capital and factor shares: new estimates using revised national income accounts and capital stock data," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 211-246, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Altonji, Joseph G & Hayashi, Fumio & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1997. "Parental Altruism and Inter Vivos Transfers: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1121-66, December.
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