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Trade and Urbanization: Evidence from Hungary

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  • Dávid Krisztián Nagy

Abstract

I study how trade affects urbanization and real income. To this end, I exploit large-scale exogenous changes in trade stemming from the redrawing of Hungary's borders after the First World War. I show that urbanization in counties near the new border decreased significantly relative to counties farther away. I rationalize this reduced-form finding in a spatial model in which benefits from trading drive agglomeration around locations where trading activity takes place. Structurally estimating the model, I find a 15.55 percent decrease in Hungarian residents' average real income after the redrawing of borders, with the largest losses concentrated in border regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2022. "Trade and Urbanization: Evidence from Hungary," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 733-790, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:733-90
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20180270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Ochsner, 2023. "Hostility, Population Sorting, and Backwardness: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Red Army after WWII," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp768, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N94 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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