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Age Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy

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  • John V. Leahy
  • Aditi Thapar

Abstract

We exploit cross-sectional variation in the response of US states to an identified monetary policy shock to study how the impact of monetary policy varies with the age structure of the population. We find that the economy's response is weaker the greater the share of population under 35 years of age and stronger the greater the share between 40 and 65. We find that all age groups become more responsive to monetary policy shocks when the proportion of the middle-aged increases. We provide evidence consistent with middle-aged entrepreneurs starting and expanding businesses in response to an expansionary monetary shock.

Suggested Citation

  • John V. Leahy & Aditi Thapar, 2022. "Age Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 136-173, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:136-73
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190337
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    2. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    3. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Doerr & Gazi Kabas & Steven Ongena, 2020. "Population Aging and Bank Risk-Taking," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-62, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Ambrocio, Gene, 2023. "Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2023, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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