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Aggregate Short Interest and Market Valuations

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  • Owen A. Lamont
  • Jeremy C. Stein

Abstract

We examine some basic data on the evolution of aggregate short interest, both during the dot-com era, and at other times in history. Total short interest moves in a countercyclical fashion. For example, short interest in NASDAQ stocks actually declines as the NASDAQ index approaches its peak. Moreover, this decline does not seem to reflect a substitution away from outright short-selling and towards put options, as the ratio of put-to-call volume displays the same countercyclical tendency. The evidence suggests that: i) arbitrageurs are reluctant to bet against aggregate mispricings; and ii) short-selling does not play a particularly helpful role in stabilizing the overall stock market.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/0002828041301759
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 94 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 29-32

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:2:p:29-32

Note: DOI: 10.1257/0002828041301759
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References

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  1. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-outs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 227-268, April.
  2. John M. Griffin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Selim Topaloglu, 2003. "Investor Behavior over the Rise and Fall of Nasdaq," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm431, Yale School of Management.
  3. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Short-sale constraints and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 207-239.
  4. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2004. "Hedge Funds and the Technology Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2013-2040, October.
  6. Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "Why are most Funds Open-end? Competition and the Limits of Arbitrage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 247-272, January.
  7. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2001. "Breadth of Ownership and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
  9. D'Avolio, Gene, 2002. "The market for borrowing stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 271-306.
  10. Dechow, Patricia M. & Hutton, Amy P. & Meulbroek, Lisa & Sloan, Richard G., 2001. "Short-sellers, fundamental analysis, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 77-106, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability," NBER Working Papers 14295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
  3. Juerg Syz & Paolo Vanini, 2011. "Arbitrage Free Price Bounds for Property Derivatives," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 281-298, October.
  4. Takahashi, Hidetomo, 2010. "Short-sale inflow and stock returns: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2403-2412, October.
  5. Asquith, Paul & Pathak, Parag A. & Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Short interest, institutional ownership, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 243-276, November.
  6. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2004. "Option Strategies: Good Deals and Margin Calls," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt0499w44p, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  7. Au, Andrea S. & Doukas, John A. & Onayev, Zhan, 2009. "Daily short interest, idiosyncratic risk, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 290-316, May.
  8. Yiuman Tse & Michael Williams, 2010. "Restricted private information provision during short sale bans," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(8), pages 722-737, August.
  9. Kang, Namho & Kondor, Péter & Sadka, Ronnie, 2011. "Idiosyncratic Return Volatility in the Cross-Section of Stocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 8307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Paul Asquith & Parag A. Pathak & Jay R. Ritter, 2004. "Short Interest and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Current account sustainability and relative reliability," International Finance Discussion Papers 947, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Michael McKenzie & Olan T. Henry, 2007. "The Determinnts of Short Selling in the Hong Kong Equities Market," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1001, The University of Melbourne.
  13. Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy, 2007. "Disagreement and the Stock Market," Scholarly Articles 2894690, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Lensberg, Terje & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner & Ladley, Dan, 2012. "Costs and Benefits of Speculation," Discussion Papers 2012/12, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  15. Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Why Are Most Funds Open-End? Competition and the Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 10259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Choi, Darwin & Getmansky, Mila & Tookes, Heather, 2009. "Convertible bond arbitrage, liquidity externalities, and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-251, February.
  17. Namho Kang & Peter Kondor & Ronnie Sadka, 2012. "Do Hedge Funds Reduce Idiosyncratic Risk?," CEU Working Papers 2012_15, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 04 Oct 2012.

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