The effect of global anti-tax avoidance efforts on sub-national profit shifting

This paper examines whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) adapt to international anti-tax avoidance regulation by intensifying domestic profit shifting activities. We compile a novel dataset by mapping MNE ownership network structures that link international to sub-national tax haven subsidiaries over time. Our analyses show that tighter international rules lead more strongly affected firms to intensify their presence in sub-national tax havens, consistent with strong increases in profit tax revenues at these locations. This shift indicates that international tax policies have had bite in constraining cross-border tax avoidance. At the same time, our findings reveal MNEs' strategic flexibility and highlight domestic spillovers and local consequences of global tax reforms.