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Sozialversicherung in demografischer Schieflage: Steigende Beitragsbelastungen für die junge Generation

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  • Werding, Martin

Abstract

Die demografische Alterung wird die Beitragssätze der umlagefinanzierten Sozialversicherungen in den nächsten Jahren und Jahrzehnten immer weiter ansteigen lassen. Ausgehend von rund 40 % der beitragspflichtigen Einkommen im Jahr 2022 muss der Gesamtsozialversicherungsbeitrag unter dem derzeit geltenden Recht sowie unter mittleren Annahmen zur zukünftigen Entwicklung von Demografie, Arbeitsmarkt und Wirtschaftswachstum bis 2035 auf 47,5 %, bis 2050 weiter auf 52,9 % und bis 2080 auf nicht weniger als 58,4 % erhöht werden. Stark steigende Beitragssätze der Sozialversicherungen haben ungünstige Rückwirkungen auf die zukünftige Beschäftigungsentwicklung und das gesamtwirtschaftliche Wachstum. Noch augenfälliger sind jedoch die aus steigenden Beitragssätzen resultierenden intergenerationellen Verteilungseffekte zu Lasten jüngerer und zukünftiger Versicherter. Die Größenordnung der intergenerationellen Umverteilung, die die demografische Alterung im Rahmen des deutschen Sozialversicherungssystems auslöst, wird in dieser Studie auf einfache, aber besonders anschauliche Weise verdeutlicht. Ausgehend vom simulierten zeitlichen Verlauf der Beitragssätze aller Sozialversicherungszweige wird zu diesem Zweck die durchschnittliche Beitragsbelastung ermittelt, der Angehörige verschiedener Geburtsjahrgänge - vom Jahrgang 1940 bis zum Jahrgang 2020 - bei einer durchgängigen sozialversicherungspflichtigen Beschäftigung während ihrer gesamten Erwerbsphase unterliegen. Die Belastung der Erwerbseinkommen mit Sozialbeiträgen steigt demnach unter dem geltenden Recht - bei grosso modo konstantem Niveau der jeweils gewährten Leistungen - von 34,2 % für den Jahrgang 1940 auf 55,6 % für den Jahrgang 2020. Diese Resultate widersprechen der Vorstellung eines "Generationenvertrages" mit ausgeglichenen Lasten und Nutzen für alle Beteiligten und gefährden die politische Legitimation der gesetzlichen Sozialversicherungen.

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  • Werding, Martin, 2025. "Sozialversicherung in demografischer Schieflage: Steigende Beitragsbelastungen für die junge Generation," WIP-Analysen Mai 2025, WIP – Wissenschaftliches Institut der PKV.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wipana:317774
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