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Die Entwicklung der Ausgaben in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung bis 2050 – bleibende Herausforderung für die deutsche Gesundheitspolitik

Listed author(s):
  • Sauerland, Dirk
  • Wübker, Ansgar

In diesem Papier wird das zukünftige Ausgabenvolumen der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung (GKV) bis zum Jahr 2050 projiziert. Die Ausgaben werden anhand von linearen Regressionsmodellen (OLS), Vektorautoregressionsmodellen (VAR) und Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodellen (VECM) geschätzt. Sie werden insbesondere durch den medizinisch-technischen Fortschritt und die Entwicklung der Einkommen getrieben. Sofern die jetzige, einkommensabhängige Finanzierung der GKV beibehalten wird, ergeben sich für das Jahr 2050 GKV-Beitragssätze zwischen 27 und 33 Prozent. Würde die Finanzierung im Jahr 2011 auf einkommensunabhängige Kopfpauschalen umgestellt werden, ergäben sich Pauschalen von etwa 100 Euro. Diese würden bis zum Jahr 2050 auf bis zu 670 Euro ansteigen.

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Paper provided by Witten/Herdecke University, Faculty of Management and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 4/2010.

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Date of creation: 2010
Handle: RePEc:zbw:uwhdps:42010
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