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Ein Szenario für 2017

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  • Mackscheidt, Klaus

Abstract

In ihrem Buch Schulden ohne Sühne (München 2010) beschreiben Kai Konrad und Holger Zschäpitz Ursachen und Folgen der Staatschuldenkrise in Deutschland und Europa sehr kompetent und eindringlich. Das gesamte finanzwissenschaftliche Wissen über die Staatsschuldentheorie wird ausgebreitet und aus aktueller Sicht bewertet und die amerikanische Theorie der ökonomischen Politik wird hinzugeschaltet. Einige Prognosen über den Zustand in Europa im Jahr 2013 sind schon in 2012 unangenehmer Weise, aber richtig eingetroffen. Der Kampf um die Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen ist noch nicht verloren, aber der Sieg ist keineswegs gewiss; deshalb geben Konrad/Zschäpitz am Ende des Buches zwei Zukunftsvisionen - eine mit Konsolidierung und eine ohne. Der Leser weiß, dass die Autoren eine hohe Präferenz für die Lösung mit Konsolidierung haben, aber ihre Zweifel, ob die Konsolidierung politikökonomisch gelingt, sind nicht zu übersehen. Wir stehen in der Mitte des Jahres 2012 und müssen aktuell erleben, dass die Merkel'sche Konsolidierungspolitik erst für Europa und danach für Deutschland wohl kaum noch zu halten ist. Jedenfalls müssen wir heute (wie Konrad/Zschäpitz 2010 München) darüber nachdenken, was bis 2017 auf die Bürger in Deutschland zukommt. Wir brauchen also zur Information der Bürger ein Szenario für 2017. [...]

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  • Mackscheidt, Klaus, 2012. "Ein Szenario für 2017," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 12-2, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:122
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