EU aviation between crisis and climate policy: Policy options between the kerosene shock and the revision of the Emissions Trading System

The war in Iran has led to kerosene prices roughly doubling and forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights. Some voices from the industry have used the crisis to call for climate policies to be relaxed. However, this misreads what the crisis actually demonstrates: Costs are being driven not by too much climate policy, but by dependence on fossil energy itself. In 2026/27 the European Union (EU) will decide whether to end the "stop the clock" exemption that has shielded international flights from the Emissions Trading System (ETS) since 2013 and extend the ETS to all departures from the European Economic Area, or whether such flights will continue to be covered by international offsetting mechanisms. The decision will have implications well beyond aviation: for the EU's 2040 climate target, the demand for durable CO2 removal, and the credibility of European climate policy more broadly.