Reclaiming Iraqi agency: Post-election dynamics and challenges

The higher turnout in Iraq's recent parliamentary elections reflects advances over the past four years, notably in infrastructure development, security, and political stability. The election's outcome and ensuing coalition-building dynamics underscore trends and challenges that will shape Iraq's domestic and foreign policies. The yet-to-be-formed government will have to balance between the United States and Iran, facing US demands for disarmament of Iraq's armed groups, managing repercussions of potential instability in Iran, and resisting being drawn into any new confrontation between Iran and either Israel or the United States. It will also have to deal with substantial domestic challenges, including strained relations between Erbil and Baghdad, the potential for renewed Sunni alienation from the state, the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, financial fragility, and consequences of climate change. European actors have limited influence over the geopolitical dynamics, but can offer support on national development and climate challenges, and should back Baghdad's striving for stronger agency and sovereignty.