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The end of the diplomatic thaw between Japan and China: How geopolitical rivalry shapes bilateral relations

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  • Fukuta, Kento
  • Sakaki, Alexandra

Abstract

The relationship between Japan and China is of far-reaching importance for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, as the two countries are the world's fourth- and second-largest economies, respectively. Over the past 15 years, bilateral tensions have deepened markedly, even as the two countries have maintained close economic ties. During the one-year tenure of Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru (October 2024-October 2025), however, there were signs of a modest thaw in relations. In November 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping described the relationship as being "in a critical phase of improvement and development". His statement was followed by a series of diplomatic exchanges and Beijing even agreed to lift import restrictions on Japanese fishery products and beef. Yet, the thaw remained limited. Beijing has reverted to a confrontational posture following remarks on Taiwan by Japan's new Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae in early November. The relationship remains fragile.

Suggested Citation

  • Fukuta, Kento & Sakaki, Alexandra, 2025. "The end of the diplomatic thaw between Japan and China: How geopolitical rivalry shapes bilateral relations," SWP Comments 52/2025, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:swpcom:334571
    DOI: 10.18449/2025C52
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