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Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C requires net-negative emissions targets

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  • Geden, Oliver
  • Reisinger, Andy

Abstract

Global warming is set to rise above 1.5êC by the early 2030s. Returning to 1.5êC before the end of the 21st century would not prevent all harms resulting from a period of excess temperatures, but it would reduce risks when compared to permanent warming above 1.5êC. Limiting the magnitude and duration of this period of "overshoot" to manage climate risks requires enhanced near-term mitigation efforts to ensure that warming peaks well below 2êC, followed by sustained net-negative carbon dioxide (CO2) and potentially net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. This presents new challenges to international climate policy in efforts "to keep 1.5êC alive". For frontrunners such as the European Union (EU), this will require reframing "net-zero" as a transitional stage towards net-negative GHG emissions rather than an endpoint, and developing policy instruments that are able to deliver this.

Suggested Citation

  • Geden, Oliver & Reisinger, Andy, 2025. "Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C requires net-negative emissions targets," SWP Comments 47/2025, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:swpcom:333596
    DOI: 10.18449/2025C47
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