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"From here on it got rough..." – Misery Indices and German Federal Governments 1951 to 2024

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  • Heilemann, Ullrich
  • Schuhr, Roland

Abstract

Okun's Misery Index (MI), which is the sum of the rates of unemployment and inflation, is a popular measure used to assess the economic situation, as well as (macroeconomic) 'economic discomfort' and government performance. We use three variants of the MI to evaluate legislative periods and Federal Chancellors between 1951 and 2024. The rankings calculated using these variants differ notably, particularly until the mid-1970s. However, the differences are limited thereafter. The results contrast sharply with those of the Barro Misery Index, a comparative measure of government performance. The findings have both sobering and reassuring implications for politics. Usual macroeconomic interventions do not affect MIs and BMIs to a sizeable degree.

Suggested Citation

  • Heilemann, Ullrich & Schuhr, Roland, 2025. ""From here on it got rough..." – Misery Indices and German Federal Governments 1951 to 2024," Working Papers 184, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:leiwps:334494
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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