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Multinationale Bevölkerungsprognosen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Migration

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  • Bruns, Gerd

Abstract

Diese empirische Analyse befaßt sich mit der multinationalen Bevölkerungsprojektion für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Spanien und die Türkei. Die zur Projektion verwendete Wachstumsmatrix des Kohorten-Komponenten-Modells wird durch die Hinzunahme von Migrationsannahmen und durch die Aufnahme mehrerer Bevölkerungen erweitert. Dabei werden unterschiedliche Annahmen bezüglich der Migration gemacht. Um die Idee sich ständig ändernder Migrations-, Fertilitäts- und Migrationsraten zu modellieren, wird in einer alternativen Projektion ein stochastisches Modell eingeführt.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruns, Gerd, 1992. "Multinationale Bevölkerungsprognosen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Migration," Discussion Papers, Series II 172, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:172
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    1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1990. "Gastarbeiterwanderungen: Statistische und demographische Analysen," Discussion Papers, Series II 117, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
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