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The EU-India trade deal: Strategic diversification in an era of uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Hinz, Julian
  • Langhammer, Rolf J.
  • Mahlkow, Hendrik
  • Thakur, Vasundhara

Abstract

• The EU-India FTA generates mutual economic gains of 0.12-0.13% of GDP for both partners, with bilateral trade surging by 41-65%. • Since the 50 percentage points tariffs imposed by the US cost India 1.6% of GDP, the EU-India FTA provides a crucial hedge while the EU demonstrates commitment to open trade amid global protectionism. • The EU-India FTA results in a substantial trade diversion from China (an estimated 5-9%), supporting both EU de-risking objectives and India's supply chain diversification strategy. • The FTA's structural benefits persist regardless of US policy changes making this trade deal a long-term partnership, not a temporary hedge.

Suggested Citation

  • Hinz, Julian & Langhammer, Rolf J. & Mahlkow, Hendrik & Thakur, Vasundhara, 2026. "The EU-India trade deal: Strategic diversification in an era of uncertainty," Kiel Policy Briefs 202, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:336759
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