IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkkb/321905.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Euroraum im Herbst 2023: Der Konjunkturmotor stottert

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Sonnenberg, Nils
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die konjunkturellen Aussichten in der Währungsunion haben sich zuletzt wieder eingetrübt. Nach einer ohnehin nur mäßigen Expansion der Wirtschaftsleistung in der ersten Jahreshälfte zeichnen viele Frühindikatoren ein zunehmend dunkleres Konjunkturbild. So hat sich das Verbrauchervertrauen zwar weiter erholt, die Unternehmen waren allerdings zuletzt weitaus weniger zuversichtlich als noch vor ein paar Monaten; insbesondere in der Industrie ist die unternehmerische Stimmung derzeit schlecht. Diese negativen Stimmungstendenzen dürften sich allerdings nicht verfestigen. Angesichts wieder weitgehend normalisierter Energiepreise, steigender Realeinkommen sowie zunehmender Unterstützung aus dem weltwirtschaftlichen Umfeld wird die Konjunktur im Prognosezeitraum voraussichtlich wieder Tritt fassen. Allerdings bleibt die wirtschaftliche Dynamik verhalten, weil die Geldpolitik wohl nur vorsichtig gelockert werden wird. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 0,6 Prozent zulegen, gefolgt von einem Zuwachs um 1,4 Prozent (2024) und 1,7 Prozent (2025). Die zuletzt noch hohe Inflation wird weiter nachgeben. Die Verbraucherpreise steigen im Durchschnitt des laufenden Jahres wohl um 5,6 Prozent, in den Folgejahren dürfte die Teuerungsrate mit 2,6 Prozent (2024) und 2,2 Prozent (2025) aber wieder deutlich niedriger ausfallen. Die Arbeitslosenquote bleibt vergleichsweise gering.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2023. "Euroraum im Herbst 2023: Der Konjunkturmotor stottert," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 106, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:321905
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/321905/1/1930414811.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    3. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Zur Revision des BIP in Irland," Kiel Insight 2016.20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Di Casola, Paola, 2023. "The role of housing wealth in the transmission of monetary policy," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kooths, Stefan & Reents, Jan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2023. "Weltwirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Moderate Expansion trotz erheblicher Gegenwinde [World Economy Autumn 2023: Global economy remains on track despite significant headwinds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 105, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Konjunktur windet sich aus der Stagnation [German Economy in Autumn 2023: German Economy gradually overcomes stagnation]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 107, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    2. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    3. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2022. "Growing differently? Financial cycles, austerity, and competitiveness in growth models since the Global Financial Crisis," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 1314-1341, July.
    5. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    6. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    7. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
    8. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    11. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    12. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Thierry Tressel & Ms. Rima A Turk, 2018. "Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2018/099, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Palestrini, Antonio, 2019. "DSGE model with financial frictions over subsets of business cycle frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 152-163.
    14. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2025. "The credit cycle does exist," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 56(3), pages 361-380.
    15. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, "undated". "Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies – evidence from inflation targeting economies in the Asia-Pacific region and potential implications for China," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_025, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    16. Laséen, Stefan & Pescatori, Andrea & Turunen, Jarkko, 2017. "Systemic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 70-85.
    17. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 551-572.
    18. Martínez, Juan Francisco & Oda, Daniel, 2021. "Characterization of the Chilean financial cycle, early warning indicators and implications for macro-prudential policies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    19. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    20. Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak, 2015. "Limited Liability, Asset Price Bubbles and the Credit Cycle: The Role of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015/16, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:321905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.