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Euroraum im Herbst 2023: Der Konjunkturmotor stottert

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Sonnenberg, Nils
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die konjunkturellen Aussichten in der Währungsunion haben sich zuletzt wieder eingetrübt. Nach einer ohnehin nur mäßigen Expansion der Wirtschaftsleistung in der ersten Jahreshälfte zeichnen viele Frühindikatoren ein zunehmend dunkleres Konjunkturbild. So hat sich das Verbrauchervertrauen zwar weiter erholt, die Unternehmen waren allerdings zuletzt weitaus weniger zuversichtlich als noch vor ein paar Monaten; insbesondere in der Industrie ist die unternehmerische Stimmung derzeit schlecht. Diese negativen Stimmungstendenzen dürften sich allerdings nicht verfestigen. Angesichts wieder weitgehend normalisierter Energiepreise, steigender Realeinkommen sowie zunehmender Unterstützung aus dem weltwirtschaftlichen Umfeld wird die Konjunktur im Prognosezeitraum voraussichtlich wieder Tritt fassen. Allerdings bleibt die wirtschaftliche Dynamik verhalten, weil die Geldpolitik wohl nur vorsichtig gelockert werden wird. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 0,6 Prozent zulegen, gefolgt von einem Zuwachs um 1,4 Prozent (2024) und 1,7 Prozent (2025). Die zuletzt noch hohe Inflation wird weiter nachgeben. Die Verbraucherpreise steigen im Durchschnitt des laufenden Jahres wohl um 5,6 Prozent, in den Folgejahren dürfte die Teuerungsrate mit 2,6 Prozent (2024) und 2,2 Prozent (2025) aber wieder deutlich niedriger ausfallen. Die Arbeitslosenquote bleibt vergleichsweise gering.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2023. "Euroraum im Herbst 2023: Der Konjunkturmotor stottert," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 106, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:321905
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Zur Revision des BIP in Irland," Kiel Insight 2016.20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    4. Di Casola, Paola, 2023. "The role of housing wealth in the transmission of monetary policy," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
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    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kooths, Stefan & Reents, Jan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2023. "Weltwirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Moderate Expansion trotz erheblicher Gegenwinde [World Economy Autumn 2023: Global economy remains on track despite significant headwinds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 105, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Konjunktur windet sich aus der Stagnation [German Economy in Autumn 2023: German Economy gradually overcomes stagnation]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 107, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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