Osteuropäische Currency Board-Länder und die optimale Integrationsstrategie in die Europäische Währungsunion am Beispiel Estlands

On its way to become a member of the European Monetary Union (EMU) Estonia needs to participate in the new European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). The need to participate in this Exchange Rate Mechanism arises quite simply from the necessity of being treated equally with the countries already participating in the monetary union, whose convergence test also included this criterion. The standard fluctuation band is determined as ??15 % compared to the relevant central euro rate. There is also the possibility to apply to have a band narrower than the standard one formally set. Estonia could make use of this possibility and bear the burden of intervention unilaterally. At first sight this circumstances may appear to be comparable to Estonias´s status quo with its Currency Board-System, so that the probability of a devaluation within the framework of ERM II should at least be no higher than with the present Currency Board-System. However, the economic and political circumstances during the membership at the ERM II differ totally from the circumstances today, so that a realignment of the Estonian kroon would be probable. The apparent detour of changing from the fixed exchange rate of the Currency Board-System via the system of broad fluctuation bands back to fixed exchange rates within EMU will prove to be more suitable route to accession to EMU.