Fragile federation: Violent conflict and attitudes toward ethnic federalism in Ethiopia

Ethnic federalism has long been a cornerstone of Ethiopia's political system - and a recurrent source of violent conflict. Despite its centrality to the country's governance and conflict dynamics, there is a notable absence of large-N quantitative research examining how exposure to violence shapes public attitudes toward ethnic federalism. This study addresses that gap by leveraging nationally representative data from rounds 8 and 9 of the Afrobarometer surveys (n = 4,778). To estimate the causal effect of violent conflict on attitudes toward ethnic federalism, we employ an instrumental variable approach that exploits the distance from respondents' geolocation to the nearest international border as an exogenous source of variation in conflict exposure. Our findings reveal that exposure to violent conflict increases support for ethnic federalism. Qualitative interviews with participants across four regions in Ethiopia suggest that violent conflict erodes trust in the central government, weakens national belonging, and strengthens ethnic identification.