Urban Governance and Pandemic Response: Elite Capture, Local Capacity Deficits, and the Smart Lockdown Strategy in Pakistan's Cities

Pakistan's urban centers, which generate 55% of the country's GDP and house 36% of its population, have become overcrowded and underresourced due to decades of misguided development policies and massive rural-to-urban migration driven by wage disparities and declining agricultural productivity. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the systemic cracks in urban governance, particularly the elite capture of state resources that prioritized economic activity over public health, and the capacity deficits of local governments that have been systematically weakened by provincial and federal governments. While the smart lockdown strategy demonstrated the potential of localized, data-driven governance to control disease spread while maintaining economic activity, it also revealed the heavy dependence of local governments on provincial and federal support for even basic administrative functions. This chapter argues that Pakistan's urban crisis stems fundamentally from incomplete devolution following the 18th Constitutional Amendment, the lack of continuity in local government institutions, and the absence of evidence-based policymaking due to severe data poverty at the district level. Without strengthening local government capacity, activating provincial finance commissions, and shifting from elite-driven infrastructure development to inclusive service delivery, Pakistan's cities will remain ill-prepared to handle future crises.