Climate Change as a Driver of Migration in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Climate change is increasingly a major driver of economic and environmental difficulties, creating more and more incentives for people to move; the literature has already analysed the environmental degradation and migration relationships. Despite many environmental problems, such as high levels of air pollution, rising temperatures, and water scarcity, empirical evidence from Central Asia and the Caucasus remains limited. The study empirically analyses the relationships between environmental changes and migration. It develops a multidimensional index using structural equation modelling (SEM) based on the fourth round of the Life in Transition Survey. The index is derived from the latent variables such as environmental concern, perceived environmental stress, and willingness to prevent environmental degradation through a two-step latent variable modelling approach. We also estimate additional latent variables, such as life satisfaction, institutional trust, economic insecurity, and migration intentions, are also estimated using maximum likelihood. Regression results confirm that subjective environmental degradation raises migration intentions in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, while no statistically significant relationship is found in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.