Assessing Methane Emissions Policy and Climate Commitments in Azerbaijan's Hydrocarbon Economy

This article examines methane emissions policy and climate commitments in Azerbaijan's hydrocarbon-dependent economy, with particular attention to the oil and gas sector, which accounts for the overwhelming majority of the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Drawing on national emissions data, international climate commitments, policy documents, and independent assessments, the study evaluates Azerbaijan's progress in methane mitigation and its broader energy transition strategy. The analysis highlights the growing discrepancy between Azerbaijan's climate pledges-including its commitments under the Paris Agreement, the Global Methane Pledge, and various international methane reduction initiatives-and the continued expansion of fossil fuel production and exports. The article argues that methane emissions from oil and gas extraction, transmission, venting, flaring, and aging infrastructure remain a major environmental challenge, while limitations in emissions measurement, transparency, and independent verification continue to undermine the credibility of official reporting. Furthermore, the study examines the environmental and economic risks associated with continued hydrocarbon dependence in a country already experiencing increasing climate vulnerability, including rising temperatures, water scarcity, land degradation, and pressure on agricultural systems. The findings suggest that meaningful methane mitigation will require modernization of energy infrastructure, enhanced monitoring and reporting mechanisms, stronger institutional transparency, and a gradual shift toward renewable energy development. Without substantial structural reforms and a credible decarbonization strategy, Azerbaijan risks falling short of its climate objectives while remaining exposed to the long-term economic and environmental costs of hydrocarbon dependence.