IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/323970.html

A Univariate based NAIRU Estimation in the Context of Data Constrained Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Tauheed, Tahira
  • Tauseef, Tahira

Abstract

This study addresses the challenge of estimating the NAIRU in developing countries, focusing on Pakistan from 1972 to 2022. Due to data constraints in such contexts, it introduces robust methodologies, including Hodrick-Prescott and Kalman filters within a univariate framework, to derive NAIRU estimates and their precision. The NAIRU estimates average around five percent, fluctuating over time, indicating a time-varying NAIRU in Pakistan. An analysis of unemployment decomposition reveals that cyclical and non-structural factors are more influential than structural ones in the labor market, emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical policies alongside necessary structural reforms. The unemployment gap and inflation analysis provide mixed evidence on NAIRU's theoretical foundation, recommending simultaneous supply shocks' control and demand management in inflation-targeting. The study indicates Kalman filter estimates the NAIRU more effectively than the HP filter, though both lack precision. Therefore, future research in developing countries with limited data should focus on developing structural approaches suitable for lower degrees of freedom alongside univariate methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Tauheed, Tahira & Tauseef, Tahira, 2025. "A Univariate based NAIRU Estimation in the Context of Data Constrained Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 323970, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:323970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/323970/1/NAIRU-Estimation-in-Context-of-Data-Constrained-Developing-Countries.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Measuring uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU: Monte Carlo and empirical evidence for alternative confidence intervals in a state space framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 357-379, March.
    2. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak, 2019. "Examining Structural Unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence from Unobserved Components," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 895-904, November.
    3. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2001. "Identification and dimension of the NAIRU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 585-611, December.
    4. Hany Guirguis & Tin Shan (Michael) Suen, 2022. "Advances in estimating the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 621-642, December.
    5. Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    7. Klaus Neusser, 2016. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-32862-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    2. Chandan Sharma & Ritesh Kumar Mishra, 2025. "Do corruption and resource endowments curse jobs? Worldwide empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-44, August.
    3. Israel, Karl-Friedrich, 2017. "In the long run we are all unemployed?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 67-81.
    4. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    5. Milen Velev, 2015. "A research on the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 40-59,60-79.
    6. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    8. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    9. Sterk, Vincent, 2016. "The dark corners of the labor market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86244, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Arestis, Philip & Ferreiro, Jesus & Gomez, Carmen, 2023. "Does employment protection legislation affect employment and unemployment?11We acknowledge the comments of an editor and an associate editor of the journal and three reviewers. Their suggestions and r," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
    12. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    13. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    14. Saglio, Sophie & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Introducing price-setting behaviour in the Phillips Curve: the role of nonlinearities," MPRA Paper 46646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Vincent Sterk, 2016. "The Dark Corners of the Labor Market," Discussion Papers 1603, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    16. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    17. Ferreira, Diego & Palma, Andreza Aparecida, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Phillips Curve: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(4), December.
    18. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2016. "The New Classical Explanation of the Stagflation: A Psychological Way of Thinking," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    19. repec:jpe:journl:1475 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    21. Mellár, Tamás & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "A kibocsátási rés becslése többváltozós állapottérmodellekben. Szuperhiszterézis és további empirikus eredmények [Estimating output gap in multivariate state space models. Super-hysteresis and furt," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 557-591.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:323970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.