Future Climate Migration in Uzbekistan: Causes, Challenges and Adaptive Strategies

Climate change is becoming a major driver of internal and external migration in Central Asia, where Uzbekistan is particularly vulnerable. Uzbekistan is confronted with the challenges of its arid geography, the water dependency of its economy, and the threat of water resource depletion. This article aims to assess the causes and consequences of future climate migration in Uzbekistan by analyzing the socio-economic effects of changes in the daily life of rural and remote populations caused by environmental effects such as temperature rise and water scarcity for agricultural production. Based on climate change scenarios, demographic trends, and survey responses, this study highlights three main directions of climate migration: internal rural-urban, external labor migration, and permanent migration. The main challenges for Uzbekistan in the context of climate migration were identified, including institutional shortcomings in adapting to climate change and the lack of legal protection of migrants. This article explores the adaptive strategies currently being considered, from increasing water use efficiency to legislative improvements and the inclusion of climate migration in the national development strategy. The study demonstrates that without proper policy interventions, Uzbekistan may experience either an influx of climate migrants or a decrease in the income level of the population in a decade. This article also provides mechanisms and recommendations for preventing climate migration.