IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The long-term sustainability of public finance in Germany: an analysis based on generational accounting

Listed author(s):
  • Manzke, Bernhard
Registered author(s):

    This paper analyses the sustainability of German public finance between 1996 and 2000 using a generational accounting approach. In contrast to previous studies based on generational accounting, the results are adjusted for cyclical and other temporary effects. This reduces the impact of exceptional factors obtaining in the base year and enhances the comparability of the results over time. First, a "status quo scenario" is considered as a comparatively transparent basis for assessing fiscal policy in the base year. In this setting it is assumed that the fiscal conditions obtaining in the base year will prevail in future years, too. Second, to obtain a more realistic picture of the real need for further fiscal policy action, a "policy scenario" is developed which includes already agreed measures that will take (full) effect only in the future. It is argued that, despite a substantial improvement in public finance in the second half of the 1990s, a sizeable sustainability gap persisted in 2000 under both scenarios. This is mainly due to the unfavourable demographic development, the consequences of which for government budgets are only partly compensated by the assumed catching-up of eastern Germany. In each of the years considered, already agreed measures taking effect in the future improved the sustainability of public finance on balance. Thus in each year the sustainability gap was narrower under the policy scenario than under the status-quo scenario.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2002,10.

    in new window

    Date of creation: 2002
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4175
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt

    Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 0
    Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.