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The models and analysis behind the Bank of Finland's forecasts for the Finnish economy

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  • Sariola, Mikko
  • Viertola, Hannu

Abstract

The Bank of Finland produces forecasts for the Finnish economy using advanced modelling tools. Central to this process is its Aino model, which is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that integrates various aspects of the Finnish economy. The forecasts support policy decisions within the Eurosystem and are updated regularly. This paper describes the forecasting process, main features of the forecasting models used and their key role in economic analysis at the Bank of Finland.

Suggested Citation

  • Sariola, Mikko & Viertola, Hannu, 2026. "The models and analysis behind the Bank of Finland's forecasts for the Finnish economy," BoF Economics Review 3/2026, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:341669
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juvonen, Petteri & Sariola, Mikko, 2025. "DSGE model meets data gently: The importance of trend modelling," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2025, Bank of Finland.
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      JEL classification:

      • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
      • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
      • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
      • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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