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Restriktivna monetarna politika i rastući profiti banaka: primjer Hrvatske nakon ulaska u europodručje

Author

Listed:
  • Viktor Viljevac

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Karlo Vujeva

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

U ovom radu analiziramo novi monetarni fenomen na primjeru hrvatske ekonomije: istodobni rast troška financiranja banaka i bankarskih profita u uvjetima strukturnog viška likvidnosti. Nakon ulaska u europodručje, Hrvatska narodna banka (HNB) kao sastavnica Eurosustava sudjelovala je u agresivnom podizanju referentnih kamatnih stopa na centralnobankarsku likvidnost. U konvencionalnim uvjetima neposredni cilj rasta kamatnih stopa je porast cijene zaduživanja poslovnih banaka, a krajnji cilj smanjivanje stope inflacije na ciljanu razinu. Međutim, nakon dvije značajne krize – Velike financijske krize i krize izazvane COVID-19 pandemijom – monetarni sustav europodručja i Hrvatske karakteriziran je postojanjem strukturnog viška likvidnosti. Samim time rast kamatne stope više nema jednoznačnu interpretaciju u transmisiji monetarne politike: poslovne banke sada zarađuju i na viškovima i na plasmanima. Navedeno ima teorijske i praktične posljedice, a fokus ovog rada je na praktičnim posljedicama po hrvatsku ekonomiju u kratkom roku. Dva su temeljna opažanja koja čine preduvjete navedenog monetarnog fenomena. Prvo, iako je HNB tek odnedavno članica Eurosustava, u Hrvatskoj postoje visoke razine akumuliranih viškova likvidnosti radi višegodišnje obrane deviznog tečaja. Drugo, hrvatsko bankovno tržište karakterizirano je visokim tržišnim udjelom najvećih banaka u ukupnoj imovini kreditnih institucija. Posljedica je rast neto kamatnih prihoda banaka, odnosno asimetričnost transmisije restriktivne monetarne politike s obzirom na namjenu budući da se demotiviraju investicije i štednja istovremeno. Ovo transmisiju monetarne politike čini suboptimalnom, a bankarske profite brzo rastućima. Zbog toga, početni rast kamatnih stopa u Hrvatskoj može se smatrati subvencijom javnog prema privatnom sektoru stranog vlasništva, što posljedično čini vjerojatnost odljeva navedenih sredstava u inozemstvo visokom. U izostanku monetarne autonomije, mogućnosti lokalne intervencije ekonomske politike primarno su u domeni fiskalne vlasti.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktor Viljevac & Karlo Vujeva, 2023. "Restriktivna monetarna politika i rastući profiti banaka: primjer Hrvatske nakon ulaska u europodručje," EFZG Working Papers Series 2306, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:2306
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    restriktivna monetarna politika; HNB; europodručje; viškovi likvidnosti; bankarski profiti;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches

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