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Utjecaj tečajne politike na ekonomsku aktivnost u visoko zaduženoj zemlji

Author

Listed:
  • Josip Tica

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Lado Nazifovski

Abstract

Cilj ovoga rada je procijeniti efekt tečaja na tekući račun platne bilance u kontekstu Marshall-Lernerovog uvjeta i efekta bogatstva na potrošnju građana. Velik broj dosadašnjih radova koji je procjenjivao efekt tečaja na dohodak, zaposlenost i/ili industrijsku proizvodnju bazirao se samo na procijeni Marshall-Lerner uvjeta. Međutim, u visoko euriziranoj ekonomija sa visokom razinom duga i valutnom klauzulom, moguće je kako negativan efekt tečaja na osobnu potrošnju nadmašuje efekt tečaja na neto izvoz. Procjena je napravljena na mjesečnoj frekvenciji u razdoblju od 2000:1 do 2010:1 pomoću Johansen kointegracijske metode. Rezultati su ukazali kako je efekt bogatstva snažniji od efekta konkurentnosti.

Suggested Citation

  • Josip Tica & Lado Nazifovski, 2012. "Utjecaj tečajne politike na ekonomsku aktivnost u visoko zaduženoj zemlji," EFZG Working Papers Series 1202, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:1202
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    efekt bogatstva; efekt konkurentnosti; Marshall-Lerner; deprecijacija; valutna klauzula;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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