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Ekonomske posljedice politike sprječavanja pada cijene stanova

  • Josip Tica

    ()

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

U ovome radu se analiziraju efekti sprječavanja pada cijena stanova na zaposlenost i bruto dodanu vrijednost građevinarstva. Procijenjene su ekonometrijske veze između indikatora potražnje, pokazatelja ponude i cijene stanova u dugom i kratkom roku. Osnovni zaključak rada je kako količina ponude nema statistički signifikantan efekt na cijene na tržištu stanova, te se prilagodba događa kroz usporavanje prodaje i gomilanje zaliha neprodanih stanova. Kao posljedica politike gomilanja neprodanih stanova s jedne strane cijene ne padaju, a s druge strane rastu loši krediti u poslovnim bankama. Posljedica ovako strukturiranog tržišta je da u vrijeme ekonomske ekspanzije padaju zalihe i rastu cijene, a u vrijeme ekonomskog usporavanja umjesto pada cijena, dolazi do natprosječnog pada proizvodnje i zaposlenosti u građevinarstvu i snažnog rasta loših kredita u poslovnim bankama. Rad sugerira nekoliko rješenja koja bi mogla potaknuti rast i zapošljavanje građevinarstva, od reforme pravosuđa u kontekstu brzine provođenja ovrha, preko poreza na nekretnine, pa sve do snažnije implementacije Basela II i subvencija kupaca.

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File URL: http://web.efzg.hr/repec/pdf/Clanak%2011-06.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb in its series EFZG Working Papers Series with number 1106.

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Length: 14
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:1106
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